Lake Wind Advisory 6, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Coffee County, AL, Dale County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Henry County, AL, Houston County, AL, Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gadsden County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Leon County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL, Baker County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Clay County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Decatur County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Early County, GA, Grady County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Lee County, GA, Miller County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Quitman County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Seminole County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Thomas County, GA, Tift County, GA, Turner County, GA, Worth County, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
319 AM EST THU NOV 15 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
THE 06 UTC REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT FROM JUST
NORTH OF ATLANTA GA TO NEAR BATON ROUGE LA. THIS FRONT AND ITS
ACCOMPANYING NARROW RAIN BAND HAS BEEN RACING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
AT 30 KT...AND WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. AS PREDICTED BY ALL THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...THE
QUASI-LINEAR MCS HAS BEEN WEAKENING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE
CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING HAS DIMINISHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE AROUND
ALBANY GA AND DOTHAN AL BEFORE DAWN. RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY FALL
TO AROUND 30 OR 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...WITH
QPF GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS AND LITTLE IF ANY THUNDER
DUE TO WEAK CAPE AND DIMINISHING Q-G FORCING. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
RAIN WILL LIKELY BE GONE BY NOON...AS MUCH DRIER AIR RAPIDLY ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE UPPER 60S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXCEPT AROUND PERRY
AND CROSS CITY FL...WHERE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LATER.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DROP BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY LEVELS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THEY WILL PROBABLY NOT GO CALM UNTIL CLOSE TO DAWN.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP NEAR FREEZING
AROUND DAWN IF THE WINDS GO COMPLETELY CALM...BUT ANY FREEZE WOULD
BE SO BRIEF AND SPOTTY THAT A FREEZE WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED FOR
NOW. ANOTHER COOL DAY IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONLY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WITH AN EXTREMELY DRY
TROPOSPHERE...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET AFTER SUNSET. A LIGHT FREEZE
IS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY MORNING. A MODERATING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EAST OFF THE EAST FL COAST.

.LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) CONFIDENCE A LITTLE LOWER THAN NORMAL
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO WITH RESPECT TO THE CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY
WEST OF BAJA. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SOLUTION AND THE 15/00Z RUN CONTINUES THAT TREND. THE 14/12Z EURO
WAS MUCH WEAKER AND FASTER. THE 15/00Z EURO THAT IS FILTERING IN
NOW IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND THIS MAKES ME
TRUST THE GFS JUST A LITTLE MORE. HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE NICE TO
SEE SOME BETTER AGREEMENT SOON.

A GRADUAL MOISTENING TREND WILL START ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND APPROACHES THE TEXAS
COAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM YIELDING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THAT WILL KEEP TEMPS WARMER
AT NIGHT AND COOLER DURING THE DAY. THE NET RESULT ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO.

WITH THE UPPER LOW WEAKENING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON MUCH OF THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EAST COAST.

A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE
ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM SPREADS EASTWARD
ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE LINGERING UPPER
DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THANKSGIVING. DUE TO TIMING AND
UNCERTAINTY ISSUES...POPS ARE KEPT 30 PERCENT OR LOWER AT THIS TIME
FRAME. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
AT 06 UTC...THE LINE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES NW OF DHN. THIS LINE CONTINUES
TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THIS LINE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD OUR
TERMINALS...BUT SHOULD HOLD ON LONG ENOUGH TO DELIVER PRECIP TO
DHN AND ABY. HAVE PLACED MVFR TEMPOS FOR -SHRA AT DHN AND ABY.
CONSIDERED MENTIONING TS...BUT WITH THE LINE WEAKENING...THE
CHANCE OF THUNDER IS DECREASING. POP CHANCES TOO LOW ELSEWHERE TO
INCLUDE TEMPOS AT THIS TIME. DID INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR MVFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EARLY IN THE TAF CYCLE AT TLH AND VLD...BUT ADVANCING
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD ELIMINATE ANY MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS
DUE TO BR BY 09Z. VFR CONDITIONS WITH RAPID CLEARING WILL OCCUR
NOT FAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CLEARING WILL START AS EARLY AS 15Z
AT DHN. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST (UP TO 25
KNOTS) BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER
SUNSET...WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND GUSTS WILL END.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN AT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THEY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOTS OF FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS TODAY. A DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DRIER AIRMASS
WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO PRODUCE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. HAVE ISSUED RED FLAG WARNINGS
FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA/SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA (WEST OF THE FLINT RIVER)
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE
25 PERCENT RH CRITERION TO BE MET THERE. IN FLORIDA...HAVE STARTED
THE RED FLAG WARNING 1 HOUR EARLIER WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER
AS RH VALUES WILL BE DROPPING QUICKER IN THE WEST BY AFTERNOON. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL
DECREASE...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL FURTHER DRY OUT. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT IN
NORTH FLORIDA. DUE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FLORIDA...WE HAVE UPGRADED
THE WATCH TO A WARNING. THE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GEORGIA AND
ALABAMA AS WE HAVE BETWEEN 3 AND 4 HOURS INDICATED AT THIS TIME OF
SUB 25 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS RED FLAG CONDITIONS COULD BE
MET ACROSS OUR EASTERN FLORIDA ZONES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  70  33  64  30  71 /  40   0   0   0   0
PANAMA CITY  73  40  63  43  72 /  30   0   0   0   0
DOTHAN       66  33  62  34  72 /  20   0   0   0   0
ALBANY       68  33  62  32  71 /  20   0   0   0   0
VALDOSTA     68  33  62  32  70 /  30   0   0   0   0
CROSS CITY   74  35  64  29  72 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...
     HENRY...HOUSTON.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...
     HOUSTON.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.

GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...
     CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...
     GRADY...IRWIN...LEE...MILLER...MITCHELL...QUITMAN...
     RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...
     WORTH.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...
     COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...
     IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...
     QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...
     TURNER...WORTH.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...CALHOUN...CLAY...DOUGHERTY...
     EARLY...LEE...MILLER...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...
     TERRELL.

FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
     EST /4 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...
     GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...LEON...LIBERTY...
     WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...
     JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...
     WAKULLA.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ TO 6 PM EST /5 PM
     CST/ FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...
     DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND
     WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...
     MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND
     WALTON...JACKSON...WASHINGTON.

GMZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL MARINE ZONES.

&&

LONG TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
REST OF DISCUSSION...FOURNIER

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