Alert archive / Illinois / Mesoscale Discussions in 2007

Mesoscale Discussion 404

March 31, 20074 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 31, 2007, 9:17 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 58 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 31, 2007, 9:17 PM CDT (02:17 UTC)
Expired
Mar 31, 2007, 10:15 PM CDT
In force
58 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 59 counties

Bond County, IL, Boone County, IL, Champaign County, IL, Christian County, IL, Clinton County, IL, Coles County, IL, Cook County, IL, Cumberland County, IL, DeKalb County, IL, DeWitt County, IL, Douglas County, IL, DuPage County, IL, Effingham County, IL, Fayette County, IL, Ford County, IL, Grundy County, IL, Iroquois County, IL, Kane County, IL, Kankakee County, IL, Kendall County, IL, Lake County, IL, LaSalle County, IL, Lee County, IL, Livingston County, IL, Logan County, IL, Macon County, IL, Macoupin County, IL, Madison County, IL, Marion County, IL, Marshall County, IL, McHenry County, IL, McLean County, IL, Montgomery County, IL, Moultrie County, IL, Ogle County, IL, Piatt County, IL, Putnam County, IL, Shelby County, IL, Vermilion County, IL, Will County, IL, Winnebago County, IL, Woodford County, IL, Benton County, IN, Jasper County, IN, Lake County, IN, Newton County, IN, Porter County, IN, Warren County, IN, Berrien County, MI, Dane County, WI, Dodge County, WI, Jefferson County, WI, Kenosha County, WI, Milwaukee County, WI, Racine County, WI, Rock County, WI, Walworth County, WI, Washington County, WI, Waukesha County, WI

The radar

The Lincoln radar (KILX), 63 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 00:00Z, 2.3 hours before the alert went out and 58 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lincoln, IL at 00:00Z on 2007-04-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 389 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lincoln, IL at 00:00Z on 2007-04-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 158 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
389 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-2 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
844 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
158 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
177 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.2
Supercell composite
1.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 010217
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010217 
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-MOZ000-010315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0404
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0917 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI...IL...NWRN IND

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 102...103...

VALID 010217Z - 010315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 102...103...CONTINUES.

WELL ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED DAMAGING SEVERE WIND GUSTS
IS RACING NEWD AT ROUGHLY 40-50 KT ACROSS CNTRL IL.  GIVEN THE
CURRENT SPEED/MOVEMENT...IT APPEARS LEADING EDGE OF STRONGEST
ACTIVITY WILL APPROACH SWRN GREATER CHICAGO METRO AREA BY 03Z. 
UNTIL NARROW WEDGE OF STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY ACROSS
NERN IL/NWRN IND IS OVERTURNED...UPDRAFT INTENSITY WILL REMAIN WELL
ORGANIZED AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE.

UPSTREAM...SECONDARY SQUALL LINE IS EVOLVING ALONG WIND SHIFT ACROSS
WCNTRL IL FROM SANGAMON COUNTY...SWWD TO ST. CLAIR COUNTY.  THIS
ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AND APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS...HOWEVER
EARLIER CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION
AND THUS SEVERE WIND THREAT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LESS.

..DARROW.. 04/01/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...

38699028 40538921 42028972 43478945 43478799 41878665
40388713 38688880 38378966

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 31, 7:10 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Hardin, Johnson, Massac, Pope, Pulaski and 3 more65 min
Mar 31, 7:25 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Bureau, Carroll, Cass, Champaign, Christian and 37 more65 min
Mar 31, 8:33 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCCook, DuPage, Iroquois, Kankakee, Lake, Vermilion and 1 more3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2007Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2007Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2007Every mesoscale discussion in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.