Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2007
Mesoscale Discussion 1981
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 19, 2007, 1:12 PM MDT for Prowers County, Colorado; 15 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 19, 2007, 1:12 PM MDT (19:12 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 19, 2007, 3:45 PM MDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Prowers County, CO, Finney County, KS, Gove County, KS, Gray County, KS, Greeley County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Lane County, KS, Logan County, KS, Ness County, KS, Scott County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Wallace County, KS, Wichita County, KS
The radar
The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 95 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 98 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1132 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -117 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1176 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 25 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 103 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 171 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.8
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 ACUS11 KWNS 191912 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191912 KSZ000-COZ000-192145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1981 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0212 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AND E CNTRL CO THROUGH WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 191912Z - 192145Z THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP NWD TOWARD W CNTRL AND NWRN KS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN CO EWD THROUGH W CNTRL AND CNTRL KS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS DESTABILIZING WITH 60S DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING FROM THE NERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN KS ALONG A ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON PERIPHERY OF REMNANT MORNING CLOUDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST 30 TO 35 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES WITH NWD EXTENT INTO WRN KS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT WITH 40 TO 45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW STRATUS IS MIXING OUT...AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING NWD WITH TIME. STORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS THEY DEVELOP NWD WITH LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. ..DIAL.. 09/19/2007 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB... 37959937 37660083 37950262 39350200 39390092 38739944
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 1:38 PM MDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bent, Cheyenne, Kiowa, Kit Carson, Prowers, Yuma | 6 hr |
| Sep 19, 5:02 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bent, Cheyenne, Kiowa, Kit Carson, Prowers, Yuma | 88 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2007Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2007Every mesoscale discussion in 2007
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.