Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2007

Mesoscale Discussion 1981

September 19, 2007Prowers County, Colorado; 15 counties in Kansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 19, 2007, 1:12 PM MDT for Prowers County, Colorado; 15 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 19, 2007, 1:12 PM MDT (19:12 UTC)
Expired
Sep 19, 2007, 3:45 PM MDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Prowers County, CO, Finney County, KS, Gove County, KS, Gray County, KS, Greeley County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Lane County, KS, Logan County, KS, Ness County, KS, Scott County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Wallace County, KS, Wichita County, KS

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 95 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 98 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2007-09-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1132 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2007-09-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 103 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1132 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-117 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1176 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
103 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
171 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 191912
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191912 
KSZ000-COZ000-192145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1981
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AND E CNTRL CO THROUGH WRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 191912Z - 192145Z

THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP NWD
TOWARD W CNTRL AND NWRN KS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR
A POSSIBLE WW.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN CO EWD THROUGH W CNTRL AND CNTRL KS.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS DESTABILIZING WITH 60S
DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING FROM THE NERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN KS ALONG A ZONE OF
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON PERIPHERY OF REMNANT MORNING CLOUDS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST 30 TO 35 KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES WITH NWD EXTENT INTO WRN KS
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT WITH 40 TO 45 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW STRATUS
IS MIXING OUT...AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING NWD WITH TIME.
STORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS THEY
DEVELOP NWD WITH LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

..DIAL.. 09/19/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

37959937 37660083 37950262 39350200 39390092 38739944

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 19, 1:38 PM MDTTornado WatchSPCBent, Cheyenne, Kiowa, Kit Carson, Prowers, Yuma6 hr
Sep 19, 5:02 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBent, Cheyenne, Kiowa, Kit Carson, Prowers, Yuma88 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2007Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2007Every mesoscale discussion in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.