Severe Thunderstorm Warning 233, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
157 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2007

.SHORT TERM...
LINEAR MCS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ACROSS NORTHWEST
TEXAS...INCLUDING THE BIG COUNTRY. ALREADY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE BIG COUNTRY...WITH ABI REPORTING NEAR 1.5 INCHES. OTHER
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND
WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET
TONIGHT DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWFA. HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY DUE TO SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND PWS OF 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTH OF I-20. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR FRIDAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY ACROSS THE CWFA.

.LONG TERM...
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WITH ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
OVER THE CWFA...ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
TEXAS. THE EUROPEAN MODELS ARE STRONGER THEN THE US MODELS WITH
THE UPPER LOW...AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. ALSO...SOME UPPER LEVEL JET
ENERGY WILL BE OVER THE AREA. SO MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
ALSO...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED
STORMS FOR MONDAY...THEN ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 65  74  63  79 /  80  60  50  50
SAN ANGELO 	 66  76  63  81 /  60  60  50  50
JUNCTION 	 68  76  66  79 /  40  60  50  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-
COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-
MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-
SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.

&&

21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
241 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2007

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-251945-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
241 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY 7 PM

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND WILL EVENTUALLY
STALL ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND THE HEARTLAND. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS..

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
MEMORIAL DAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. AGAIN...WHILE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...AN ISOLATED STORM COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
242 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2007

TXZ066-139-242045-
RUNNELS TX-COLEMAN TX-
242 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR RUNNELS
AND COLEMAN COUNTIES...

AT 240 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 5 MILES EAST OF BALLINGER...MOVING EAST
AT 5 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BENOIT BY 310 PM CDT
  TALPA BY 345 PM CDT