Flash Flood Warning 47, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1224 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2007

.AVIATION...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING TAFS. JUST EXTENDED THE
FORECAST AND CONTINUED TO SHOW GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH SOME HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2007/

UPDATE...
UPDATED ZONES FOR FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
ALSO...INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF
5 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. MAY HAVE TO WATCH THE
CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS AREA.

21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2007/

UPDATE...WILL SEND AN UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL
ACROSS MOST OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND ALSO INCREASED POPS FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH TO LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HEARTLAND AND
HILL COUNTRY. IN ADDITION ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY. OTHERWISE
NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME.

BRAZZELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2007/

UPDATE...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE ABOUT 30 MINUTES AGO TO INCREASE POPS TO
DEFINITE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BIG COUNTRY...AND INCREASE THE LIKELY
POPS A LITTLE MORE AS WELL. AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NOW MOVING
INTO THE BIG COUNTRY. DOES NOT LOOK SEVERE BY ANY STRETCH...BUT
SHOULD BRING SOME DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2007/

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
KABI (ABILENE) AROUND 16Z...BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG
MERTZON...SAN ANGELO...BROWNWOOD LINE 18-19Z. STRATUS WITH MVFR
CIGS HAS MOVED INTO MUSH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AT 11Z AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. MVFR CIGS AT KABI THROUGH MUCH OF TAF
PERIOD...MAY SEE SOME IFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES WITH HEAVIER STORMS
AFTER 16Z. MVFR CIGS SHOULD LEFT TO NEAR VFR BY 17-18Z ACROSS
REST OF WC TEXAS...BUT THEN EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2007/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT MAKING DECENT PROGRESS TOWARDS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF LUBBOCK TO CHILDRESS AT 3 AM.
GIVEN CURRENT SPEED...FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHWEST
BIG COUNTRY RIGHT AROUND 12Z AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION ALSO CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT...SO GIVEN SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT AND SOME HEATING LATER TODAY...EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FRONT TO DROP SOMEWHERE INTO WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS...STALL...AND THE BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS A GOOD BET FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

LONG TERM...
ABOUT THE TIME THE EFFECTS FROM THE FRONT START TO END...UPPER
TROUGH WANDERS INTO THE AREA TO KICK OFF MORE STORMS FOR THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE ALL OF THE FEATURES WILL
END UP...WILL END UP BROAD BRUSHING POPS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 77  63  76  62 /  80  80  60  50
SAN ANGELO 	 81  64  78  63 /  60  60  60  50
JUNCTION 	 81  66  78  65 /  50  40  60  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-
COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-
MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-
SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.

&&

27/27/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
439 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2007

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-250945-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
439 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOME STATIONARY ALONG A BIG LAKE...SAN
ANGELO...BROWNWOOD LINE IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF A STERLING CITY...MERTZON...SONORA LINE WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
MEMORIAL DAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. AGAIN...WHILE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...AN ISOLATED STORM COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY POSSIBLY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.