Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
630 PM CDT MON APR 30 2007

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN TEXAS NEAR LUBBOCK...MOVING SLOWLY
EAST. SCATTERED TSTMS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CONCHO VALLEY AND EASTERN BIG COUNTRY. MORE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY MAINLY AFTER 01/06Z. ALSO...WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS OF BKN015-025 EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER
01/06Z...WITH IFR CIGS BLO OVC010 IN THE KBBD...KSOA...KJCT TAFS
AFTER 01/08Z.  21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT MON APR 30 2007/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE A FEW SYSTEMS TO FOCUS ON WITH THIS FORECAST.

THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTHWEST OF LUBBOCK IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE PARTIAL CLEARING AND
DESTABILIZATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
REDEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA WITH ISOLATED
COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH. THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE COMMON WITH
THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE. THE CONCERN FOR LATER TONIGHT SHIFTS TO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THE UPPER LOW WILL
DRIFT EAST TO NEAR CHILDRESS OVERNIGHT. THE LIFT NEAR THIS COULD
RESULT IN AN AREA OF CONVECTION WITH CONCENTRATED HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS NEARBY. WITH THE
2-3.5 INCH RAINFALL WHICH OCCURRED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN AN INCH IN THAT AREA TONIGHT...WE ARE
ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BIG COUNTRY.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY...SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
BETTER MOISTURE PROXIMITY AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE LIFTING
OUT INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN OUR REGION AFTER THE FIRST SYSTEM DEPARTS.
THIS COMBINED WITH LIFT/DESTABILIZATION WITH APPROACH
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ALONG WITH PRESENCE OF A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
PRESENTLY HAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE BUT THESE WILL
BE INCREASED IF MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE PLACEMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE SOIL BECOMING SATURATED ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE OVER THE
WESTERN US LATE THIS WEEK WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING TO
NEAR THE 4-CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. CARRYING LOW
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE
LEE SIDE TROUGH/DRYLINE TO OUR WEST. INCREASING THE POPS FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...GIVEN THE GFS SOLUTION OF BRING THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD TEXAS.
WILL ALSO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS THE CURRENT
PROJECTIONS INDICATE THAT IT WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  64  79  63  83 /  60  40  10  30
SAN ANGELO  65  81  64  85 /  40  30  10  30
JUNCTION  66  81  64  84 /  40  30  10  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR CALLAHAN-FISHER-
HASKELL-JONES-NOLAN-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
336 PM CDT MON APR 30 2007

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-012045-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
336 PM CDT MON APR 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH. IN ADDITION ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO FORM OVERNIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE BIG COUNTRY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
MORE HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
546 PM CDT MON APR 30 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0543 PM     HAIL             MILES                   31.60N 100.18W
04/30/2007  E1.75 INCH       RUNNELS            TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            ALSO NICKEL SIZE HAIL

&&

MCUNNING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
627 PM CDT MON APR 30 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     HAIL             2 S BALLINGER           31.71N 99.96W
04/30/2007  E0.88 INCH       RUNNELS            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MCUNNING