Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
408 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO CORRECT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH VALID PERIOD FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF 7PM TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007/

SHORT TERM...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ATTENDANT SHORTWAVES AND SPEED MAXES
IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING MOST OF WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST TONIGHT TOWARD
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AS THIS TAKES PLACE...CONTINUED EAST/SOUTHEAST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 1.2 AT KMAF TO 1.5 INCHES AT
KDRT FROM THIS MORNING/S SOUNDINGS. AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED
WITH THIS ADDED MOISTURE HAS DESTABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
AREA...AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
OVER THE CONCHO VALLEY AND WESTERN BIG COUNTRY. WITH THE ADDITION
OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
LOW...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE
40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A
POTENTIAL HAZARD AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER THE
NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY AND FAR WESTERN
BIG COUNTRY.

LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS...AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL STILL BE READILY AVAILABLE. ROTATING
SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE LOW WITH MID AND
UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAXES. THERE WILL BE LULLS IN
PRECIPITATION...BUT TIMING OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IS
DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
AREA FOR MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN...SO WILL LEAVE HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN THE FORECAST. IN
ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN...IF THE AIR MASS IS ABLE TO
RECOVER SUFFICIENTLY FROM OVERNIGHT RAINS TO DESTABILIZE...SEVERE
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY...MAINLY WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE LOW SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO OKLAHOMA...
SO WILL SHIFT THE LIKELY CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA INTO OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW SLOWS DOWN...WE MAY HAVE TO KEEP
SOME HIGHER POPS BACK FARTHER TO THE WEST. AGAIN...HEAVY
RAIN...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH
ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK
IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...AS WEAK
RIDGING FOLLOWS THIS LOW BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
IN.

CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OUT OVER THE PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO WEST TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP POSSIBLE FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
AND TX SOUTH PLAINS. WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME STRONG WEST WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM COMES ACROSS ON THURSDAY.

RIDGING AFTER THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BREAK IN THE ACTIVE
WEATHER PERIOD AND A WARMUP INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  63  73  62  81 /  70  70  50  40
SAN ANGELO  63  78  64  83 /  90  70  40  20
JUNCTION  65  77  65  81 /  90  70  50  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR COKE-CROCKETT-
FISHER-IRION-KIMBLE-MENARD-NOLAN-SCHLEICHER-STERLING-SUTTON-TOM
GREEN.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
225 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-301930-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
225 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CROCKETT...SUTTON...AND
SCHLEICHER COUNTIES UNTIL 8 PM. TORNADIC STORMS COULD DEVELOP
ANYTIME THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE ISOLATED TORNADOES...
LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AN UPPER LOW IN MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THUNDERSTORMS WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDWADS
PLATEAU LATE THIS EVENING AND MOVE NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT AS THE
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SOME AREAS MAY SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
932 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0926 PM     HAIL             9 SW CLYDE              32.31N 99.61W
04/29/2007  E1.00 INCH       CALLAHAN           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

09

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