Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
159 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

.SHORT TERM...

WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BISECT THE CWA FROM CROCKETT COUNTY
UP TO SWEET WATER AND HASKELL. COMPLEX OF STORMS IN THE CONCHO
VALLEY HEADING NE TOWARD THE BIG COUNTRY. WITH SEVERAL POTENTIAL
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS... ADDED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM
MONDAY. MAIN CONCERN IS TRAINING OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE NE. LIKELY
SEE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED AS LITTLE CHANGE IN FRONTAL
LOCATION THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. GFS SB CAPES JUST A LITTLE LOWER
TODAY...2000 TO 2500 J/KG...PROBABLY BECAUSE SFC TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES LESS WITH CLOUDS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO/4 CORNERS REGION...DRIFTS SLOWLY
EAST INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE PULLING OVER PANHANDLE THURSDAY AND
NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY. WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...
AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 78  62  77  60 /  60  60  60  60
SAN ANGELO 	 78  63  78  59 /  60  60  60  60
JUNCTION 	 81  67  79  65 /  30  40  40  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-
COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-MCCULLOCH-
MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-
TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.

&&

04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
510 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-081015-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
510 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM OZONA TO SWEETWATER PROVIDES A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH
THE ATMOSPHERE BEING VERY UNSTABLE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS
THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM IN NEW MEXICO SLOWLY MOVES INTO NORTHEAST
TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY.

04

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
148 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

TXZ072-077-070745-
TOM GREEN TX-SCHLEICHER TX-
148 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 245 AM CDT FOR TOM GREEN
AND SCHLEICHER COUNTIES...

AT 146 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR OVER SOUTHERN TOM GREEN AND NORTHERN
SCHLEICHER COUNTIES...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF...
  NORTHERN SCHLEICHER AND SOUTHEASTERN TOM GREEN COUNTIES.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING FOR
WESTERN TEXAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
341 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

TXZ073-077-168-070945-
CONCHO TX-SCHLEICHER TX-MENARD TX-
341 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 AM CDT FOR
SCHLEICHER COUNTY AND MENARD COUNTY...

AT 338 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 2 MILES EAST OF FORT MCKAVETT...OR
ABOUT 18 MILES WEST OF MENARD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MENARD AND THE INTERSECTION OF US-83 AND HIGHWAY 29 BY 405 AM CDT
  US-83 NEAR THE MENARD-CONCHO COUNTY LINE BY 415 AM CDT

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS STORM. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER
ON AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.