Severe Thunderstorm Warning 173, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
335 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR POPS

APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THRU CENTRAL OK. COOLER AIR
SITTING WELL BEHIND WIND SHIFT. THREE AREAS OF CONVECTION TO WATCH
THIS EVENING. WARM SECTOR HAS REALLY TAKEN OFF...ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH LA...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. SEVERAL HAIL REPORTS HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED. TAIL END OF MCS MOVING ACROSS AR...EVOLVED INTO SCT AREA
TSTMS NOTRH OF I-30. FINALLY...CONVECTION ALWAYS POSSIBILITY ALONG
MAIN FRONT...WHICH IS REASON TO KEEP POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. WARM
SECTOR CONVECTION MORE DIURNAL SO EXPECT THIS AREA TO DECREASE
THIS EVENING. EXPECT AREA NORTH OF I-30 TO TRANSLATE EAST AND FILL
IN AS OUTFLOWS FROM NORTH LA...AND CENTRAL OK...LIKELY COLLIDE IN
THIS REGION...AND GOING LIKELY POPS ALONG LA/AR BORDER LATER
TONIGHT. WITH LACK OF DYNAMICS NOT GOING HIGHER THAN 60 PERCENT...
ALTHOUGH MODERATE DIRECTIONAL UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MAY ENHANCE
HEAVY RAIN AND UPDRAFT POTENTIAL IN THE EVENING HOURS.

WNW UPPER FLOW SHOULD PUSH FRONT THRU AREA DURING DAY...LEAVE IN
SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH BY WED AFTN...EXPECT A CLOUD SHIELD TO REMAIN
FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE. DRIER AND
SEASONALLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW INTO THE WEEKEND. /VII/

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING ALONG A
KJLN-KMLC-KGYI LINE AT MID-AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  WITH THE ADDITION
OF FRONTAL FORCING...THE CONVECTION SHOULD NOT HAVE A PROBLEM
CONTINUING AFTER SUNSET.  FOR THE 16/0000 UTC TAF PACKAGE...I EXPECT
MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT MOST TERMINALS DUE TO CIGS AND VSBYS.
POSSIBLE REDUCTIONS TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE...EXPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS.  IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF FLIGHT
CATEGORIES EXPECTED THEREAFTER.  /21/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  80  57  80 /  60  20  10   0
MLU  66  78  56  79 /  60  30  10   0
DEQ  59  81  51  79 /  50   0  10   0
TXK  62  79  55  79 /  50   0  10   0
ELD  64  79  53  79 /  60  20  10   0
TYR  62  81  57  80 /  40  20  10   0
GGG  64  79  56  79 /  50  20  10   0
LFK  67  83  58  80 /  40  30  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-161100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...WHICH MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH OF THE FOUR STATE
AREA DURING EARLY TOMORROW.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20...BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FOUR STATE AREA.

THE ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS...IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

VII

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