Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1030 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SENDING OUT UPDATE MAINLY FOR SOME WORDING ADJUSMENT OF WINDS...AND
INCREASES OF SKY COVER. FOR CONSISTENCY...AND TO ACCOUNT FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER SE OK...WILL BUMP NW PORTION
TO LIKELY. MAY TWEAK A TEMP HERE AND THERE. AS A SIDE NOTE...ISOLATED
STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER LOWER PORTIONS OF NORTH LA...WITH
ONE STORM JUST APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS. /VII/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DOT THE LANDSCAPE OVER THE FOUR STATE
AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH A TXK-TYR
LINE AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF
TSTMS...CAUSING POOR FLYING CONDITIONS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION THROUGH SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY./03/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  89  66  79  57 /  40  40  30  10
MLU  87  65  78  56 /  40  40  30  10
DEQ  84  59  79  51 /  60  50  10  10
TXK  86  63  78  55 /  50  40  20  10
ELD  87  63  77  53 /  40  40  20  10
TYR  87  64  79  57 /  50  40  30  10
GGG  87  64  79  56 /  50  40  30  10
LFK  89  66  82  58 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-161100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...WHICH MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH OF THE FOUR STATE
AREA DURING EARLY TOMORROW.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20...BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FOUR STATE AREA.

THE ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS...IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

VII

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1156 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 AM     HAIL             8 S PROVENCAL           31.54N 93.20W
05/15/2007  E1.00 INCH       NATCHITOCHES       LA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

03