Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 012214
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
515 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

MOC077-012225-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-070601T2300Z/
GREENE MO-
515 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR GREENE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3742 9318 3742 9332 3749 9331 3766 9330
      3766 9324 3764 9319

$$

MOC167-012300-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-070601T2300Z/
POLK MO-
515 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY...

AT 511 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR PLEASANT HOPE...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BOLIVAR...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY...INCLUDING THE TOWN OF HALF WAY.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3742 9318 3742 9332 3749 9331 3766 9330
      3766 9324 3764 9319

$$

GAGAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
306 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...AIRMASS IS UNDERGOING A RECOVERY PHASE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNINGS DECAYING CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED BACK
INTO THE LOWER 80S AREA WIDE...WITH DEWPOINTS MAKING THEIR WAY BACK
INTO THE 60S AFTER DIPPING INTO THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. VIS/IR SAT IMAGERY (AND A LOOK OUTSIDE THE DOOR) SHOWING
VERY LITTLE CU DEVELOPMENT AT THIS HOUR. THIS SHOULD CHANGE AS WHAT
LITTLE INHIBITION REMAINS IS ERODED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE REGION BETWEEN MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ALOFT...ANY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP WILL BE ON THE SCATTERED SIDE.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHRA/TSRA. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS CONTINUES TO SEND A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THE 12Z SUITE OF
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE DID NOT INITIALIZE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE VERY
WELL...AND THEIR RESPECTIVE REPRESENTATIONS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ARE SUSPECT. NEVERTHELESS...ONGOING DEVELOPMENT OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AND AFFECT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS SENT OUR WAY.
FOLLOWING THE TRENDS OF THE 03Z AND 09Z SREF...IT APPEARS THAT THE
BULK OF ANY PRECIP TONIGHT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NW THIRD TO HALF
OF THE CWFA AS DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY...BUT DELIBERATELY SHIFT TO
THE EAST AND APPROACH THE NW CWA ON SATURDAY.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL...SUCH AS ONE THAT
AFFECTED THE AREA THIS MORNING...IS A LITTLE LESS LIKELY TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL AND CORFIDI
VECTORS SUGGEST AN ELONGATED AXIS OF TSRA ORIENTED NE/SW COMPLEX.
ANY SUBSTANTIAL FORWARD PROPAGATION APPEARS TO BE HEADED JUST TO OUR
NORTH...WITH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TSRA MAKING MUCH SLOWER
PROGRESS TO THE EAST. WILL ALTER THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THIS PACKAGE...REMOVING THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND EXTENDING THE TIME OF THE WATCH ACROSS THE NW THIRD OF
THE CWA.

BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AND BEYOND...A LOW END RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
PLAUSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL
(30KTS AT BEST) AND MID 60S DEWPOINTS SHOULD YIELD MLCAPE VALUES IN
THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. ASSUMING TEMPS DO REACH THE LOWER 80S ONCE
AGAIN...THE EXPECTED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

CONVECTION SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA INTO
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL KEEP THE ARE IN A NW FLOW REGIME ALOFT. A FEW DISTURBANCE
WILL STREAK THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND OVERALL SENSIBLE WEATHER POTENTIAL WARRANTS ONLY A
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

IN THE EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MED RANGE MODEL OUTPUT
AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE DECENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL TRANSFORMATION FROM A RIDGE
WEST/TROUGH EAST TO TROUGH WEST/RIDGE EAST AS AN UPPER LOW
RETROGRADES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERRITORIES OF ALASKA. VERY LITTLE
TO HANG ONES HAT ON REGARDING POPS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID WEEK
TIME FRAME...AND HAVE GONE DRY FOR THIS TIME FRAME. SOME SEMBLANCE
OF CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED BY THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE TIMING OF
ANY FEATURE AFFECTING OUR REGION. THUS HAVE CUT GUIDANCE POPS FOR
THUR AND FRI TO SLIGHT CHC. TEMPERATURE WISE...A WARMING TREND IS ON
TAP. READINGS WILL STAY AT OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE TUES...BUT RAPIDLY
WARMING 850MB TEMPS FROM BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE
85-90 RANGE BY WED THROUGH FRI.

GAGAN

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING CONDITIONS
IMPROVED TO VFR AT BOTH KSGF AND KJLN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH TAF LOCATIONS. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON
CLOUD COVER...AND HOW WELL THE AIRMASS CAN RECOVER FROM THIS MORNING
AND DESTABILIZE.  EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP.

HATCH

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7PM ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
     WARSAW TO BRANSON.
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7PM FOR BOURBON...CRAWFORD AND
     CHEROKEE COUNTIES.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-021815-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
100 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
 DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
 QUARTERS...AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF
 INTERSTATE 44...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST
 OF INTERSTATE 44.

  DISCUSSION:

 THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS
 DAYTIME HEATING...APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND STRONG LOW
 LEVEL WINDS...CAUSE THE AIRMASS OVER THE OZARKS TO BECOME
 UNSTABLE. SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR WILL CAUSE A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
 SEVERE. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
 HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DUE TO THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN
 PLACE...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI BY MIDDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL
BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN/HATCH