Flash Flood Warning 65, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 020022
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
719 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

MOC167-020500-
/X.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0065.000000T0000Z-070602T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
POLK MO-
719 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY...

AT 717 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED 
AREA. 

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS CAUSING FLASH FLOODING. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...PLEASANT HOPE.

FLOOD WAS REPORTED TO BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE WHOLE CITY OF PLEASANT 
HOPE WITH 2 FEET OF WATER OVER MOST OF THE ROADWAYS IN THE CITY.
215 AND H HIGHWAY WAS REPORTED TO BE FLOODED WITH 2 FEET OF WATER 
OVER THE ROADWAY. HIGHWAY H 4 MILES SOUTH OF PLEASANT HOPE WAS 
REPORTED FLOODED WITH 3 FEET OF WATER OVER THE ROADWAY.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT OR IN A VEHICLE.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

LAT...LON 3757 9318 3742 9318 3742 9334 3757 9333

$$

WISE

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 020505
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1203 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2007

MOC167-020513-
/X.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0065.000000T0000Z-070602T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
POLK MO-
1203 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR SOUTHEASTERN POLK
COUNTY...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER 
THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED 
OR WERE BEGINNING TO RECEDE...ENDING THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IF 
FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW 
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. A FLOOD WARN HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR POLK COUNTY FOR 
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...FOR ONGOING FLOODING DUE TO THE HEAVY 
RAINS THIS EVENING.

LAT...LON 3757 9318 3742 9318 3742 9334 3757 9333

$$

WISE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
306 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...AIRMASS IS UNDERGOING A RECOVERY PHASE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNINGS DECAYING CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED BACK
INTO THE LOWER 80S AREA WIDE...WITH DEWPOINTS MAKING THEIR WAY BACK
INTO THE 60S AFTER DIPPING INTO THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. VIS/IR SAT IMAGERY (AND A LOOK OUTSIDE THE DOOR) SHOWING
VERY LITTLE CU DEVELOPMENT AT THIS HOUR. THIS SHOULD CHANGE AS WHAT
LITTLE INHIBITION REMAINS IS ERODED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE REGION BETWEEN MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ALOFT...ANY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP WILL BE ON THE SCATTERED SIDE.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHRA/TSRA. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS CONTINUES TO SEND A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THE 12Z SUITE OF
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE DID NOT INITIALIZE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE VERY
WELL...AND THEIR RESPECTIVE REPRESENTATIONS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ARE SUSPECT. NEVERTHELESS...ONGOING DEVELOPMENT OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AND AFFECT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS SENT OUR WAY.
FOLLOWING THE TRENDS OF THE 03Z AND 09Z SREF...IT APPEARS THAT THE
BULK OF ANY PRECIP TONIGHT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NW THIRD TO HALF
OF THE CWFA AS DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY...BUT DELIBERATELY SHIFT TO
THE EAST AND APPROACH THE NW CWA ON SATURDAY.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL...SUCH AS ONE THAT
AFFECTED THE AREA THIS MORNING...IS A LITTLE LESS LIKELY TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL AND CORFIDI
VECTORS SUGGEST AN ELONGATED AXIS OF TSRA ORIENTED NE/SW COMPLEX.
ANY SUBSTANTIAL FORWARD PROPAGATION APPEARS TO BE HEADED JUST TO OUR
NORTH...WITH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TSRA MAKING MUCH SLOWER
PROGRESS TO THE EAST. WILL ALTER THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THIS PACKAGE...REMOVING THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND EXTENDING THE TIME OF THE WATCH ACROSS THE NW THIRD OF
THE CWA.

BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AND BEYOND...A LOW END RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
PLAUSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL
(30KTS AT BEST) AND MID 60S DEWPOINTS SHOULD YIELD MLCAPE VALUES IN
THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. ASSUMING TEMPS DO REACH THE LOWER 80S ONCE
AGAIN...THE EXPECTED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

CONVECTION SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA INTO
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL KEEP THE ARE IN A NW FLOW REGIME ALOFT. A FEW DISTURBANCE
WILL STREAK THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND OVERALL SENSIBLE WEATHER POTENTIAL WARRANTS ONLY A
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

IN THE EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MED RANGE MODEL OUTPUT
AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE DECENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL TRANSFORMATION FROM A RIDGE
WEST/TROUGH EAST TO TROUGH WEST/RIDGE EAST AS AN UPPER LOW
RETROGRADES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERRITORIES OF ALASKA. VERY LITTLE
TO HANG ONES HAT ON REGARDING POPS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID WEEK
TIME FRAME...AND HAVE GONE DRY FOR THIS TIME FRAME. SOME SEMBLANCE
OF CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED BY THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE TIMING OF
ANY FEATURE AFFECTING OUR REGION. THUS HAVE CUT GUIDANCE POPS FOR
THUR AND FRI TO SLIGHT CHC. TEMPERATURE WISE...A WARMING TREND IS ON
TAP. READINGS WILL STAY AT OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE TUES...BUT RAPIDLY
WARMING 850MB TEMPS FROM BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE
85-90 RANGE BY WED THROUGH FRI.

GAGAN

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING CONDITIONS
IMPROVED TO VFR AT BOTH KSGF AND KJLN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH TAF LOCATIONS. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON
CLOUD COVER...AND HOW WELL THE AIRMASS CAN RECOVER FROM THIS MORNING
AND DESTABILIZE.  EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP.

HATCH

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7PM ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
     WARSAW TO BRANSON.
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7PM FOR BOURBON...CRAWFORD AND
     CHEROKEE COUNTIES.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-021815-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
100 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
 DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
 QUARTERS...AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF
 INTERSTATE 44...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST
 OF INTERSTATE 44.

  DISCUSSION:

 THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS
 DAYTIME HEATING...APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND STRONG LOW
 LEVEL WINDS...CAUSE THE AIRMASS OVER THE OZARKS TO BECOME
 UNSTABLE. SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR WILL CAUSE A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
 SEVERE. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
 HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DUE TO THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN
 PLACE...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI BY MIDDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL
BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN/HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
546 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     HAIL             1 NW FORSYTH            36.70N 93.13W
06/01/2007  E1.00 INCH       TANEY              MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

GCLAYCOM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
547 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

KSZ073-012345-
BOURBON KS-
547 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BOURBON COUNTY UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 545 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF REDFIELD...OR 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF FORT SCOTT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FORT SCOTT BY 600 PM CDT.
  FULTON BY 625 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF DEVON AND HAMMOND ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
551 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             PLEASANT HOPE           37.46N 93.27W
06/01/2007  E1.00 INCH       POLK               MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ONE INCH OF RAIN IN 20 MINUTES

&&

GCLAYCOM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
553 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             1 NW FORSYTH            36.70N 93.13W
06/01/2007  E1.00 INCH       TANEY              MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STILL HAILING. A TEN INCH TREE BRANCH FELL ON HOUSE

&&

GCLAYCOM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
554 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     HAIL             BRANSON                 36.64N 93.22W
06/01/2007  E1.00 INCH       TANEY              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GCLAYCOM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
556 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             FORSYTH                 36.68N 93.12W
06/01/2007  E0.25 INCH       TANEY              MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            BIG TREES BENT OVER

&&

GCLAYCOM