Severe Thunderstorm Warning 223, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
840 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING...AND WILL SPREAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SECOND
WAVE OF SEVERE STORMS APPROACHES THE AREA.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KANSAS
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. A STRONG 100 KT UPPER LEVEL
JET IS RIDING UNDER THE WAVE. THIS IS ALLOWING A VERY STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
50 TO 70 KTS ARE PRESENT. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
EAST OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DRY LINE. A SECOND ROUND
OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...GIVEN THE
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
WITH ANY LINE SEGMENTS THAT FORM. WITH THE STRONG SHEAR
PRESENT...ROTATING SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

THE DRY LINE AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CWA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WILL EXIT THE CWA BY DAY
BREAK. AS THIS STRONG STORM SYSTEM MARCHES THROUGH...ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WISE

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 712 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007/

SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS A GOOD BET LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY BEFORE 3 AM. THERMODYNAMICS REMAIN
VARIABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH INDICES ACTUALLY INCREASING DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER TONIGHT...MUCH CALMER WEATHER WILL
DEVELOP...HOWEVER GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE ACROSS
WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS BEFORE NOON THURSDAY...THEN
REMAIN STREADY OR SLOWLY FALL AS CLOUD COVER AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE OZARKS. THE EASTERN OZARKS
WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE 70S WITH A FEW 80S POSSIBLE IN SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE A POCKET OF WARMER AIR WILL RESIDE THROUGH
THE DAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION FROM COOLER AIR TO MUCH
WARMER AIR AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
92/85H WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE TEENS WHICH WILL PROVIDE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. SUNDAY MAY GET ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY BUT THIS DEPENDS UPON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE
MID/LONG TERM RANGE WHICH REMAINS A PROBLEM WITH TIMING AND THE
OVERALL EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN THE FAVORITE WITH THE MEAN
UPPER AIR FLOW...DIFFERENCES ARISE IN SURFACE
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD HPC
GUIDANCE...BUT HAVE SEVERAL CONCERNS WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
AND HOW LONG IT WILL REMAIN WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
ANYWAY...CONFIDENCE AFTER SUNDAY REMAINS VERY LOW WITH ANY ONE
SOLUTION.

JLT

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME WITH
A SECOND LINE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA FROM 01-09Z. CEILINGS
WILL VARY FROM VFR TO MVFR WITH IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN
AND NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS. COULD ALSO BE SOME RESIDUAL FOG
PRESENT UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

GAEDE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
805 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-190115-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
805 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR STRONG AND LONG TRACKED TORNADOES...
  DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...AND LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
  GOLFBALLS.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
  WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
  OUTLOOK AREA FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

  DISCUSSION:

  A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS
  THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONVECTION CONTINUES
  ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE PRESENCE OF DEEP
  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WILL
  CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR ROTATING SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE AREA.
  STRONG LINE SEGMENTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING
  STRAIGHT LINE WINDS POSSIBLE. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND
  ASSOCIATED JET STREAM IS PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
  WILL PUSH OVER TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM
  APPROACHES THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
  HOURS...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
  AREA. DISCRETE ROTATING SUPERCELLS WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
  DAMAGING WINDS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
  PRODUCING STRONG AND LONG TRACK TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

 ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY
 BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND
 SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
 KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
 LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. &&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
647 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     TORNADO          3 S MORRISVILLE         37.44N 93.43W
10/17/2007                   POLK               MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND SOUTH OF
            MORRISVILLE...HOWEVER NO DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED AT THIS
            TIME.

&&

JLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
651 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     TORNADO          1 S MORRISVILLE         37.47N 93.43W
10/17/2007                   POLK               MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            TORNADO REMAINS ON THE GROUND SOUTH OF MORRISVILLE AT THE
            JUNCTION OF POLK COUNTY ROAD 111 AND FARM ROAD 560. THE
            TORNADO WAS REPORTED MOVING RAPIDLY NORTH NORTHWEST.

&&

JLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
653 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CAVE SPRINGS            37.35N 93.46W
10/17/2007                   GREENE             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            10 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMB BLOWN DOWN.

&&

JLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
659 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0657 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     MORRISVILLE             37.48N 93.43W
10/17/2007                   POLK               MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            A WALL CLOUD WAS ROTATING OVER THE TOWN OF MORRISVILLE.

&&

JLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
756 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     TORNADO          1 E CAVE SPRINGS        37.35N 93.45W
10/17/2007                   GREENE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO A HOUSE, BARN, AND TREES.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
825 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     HAIL             LIBERAL                 37.56N 94.52W
10/17/2007  E1.00 INCH       BARTON             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BARJENBRUCH