Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Springfield, MO

October 17, 2007Bourbon County, Crawford County, Kansas

NWS Springfield, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 17, 2007, 7:35 PM CDT for Bourbon County, Crawford County, Kansas. It was in force for 55 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 17, 2007, 7:35 PM CDT (00:35 UTC)
Expired: Oct 17, 2007, 8:30 PM CDT
In force: 55 min
Issued by: NWS Springfield, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Bourbon County, KS, Crawford County, KS

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 131 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Oct 17, 5:30 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 0.6 hours before the alert went out and 139 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1262 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -8 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 618 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 61 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 266 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 287 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 2.4
Supercell composite: 8.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KSGF 180035
SVRSGF
KSC011-037-180130-
/O.NEW.KSGF.SV.W.0221.071018T0035Z-071018T0130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
735 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  BOURBON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
  CRAWFORD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT.

* AT 732 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES WEST OF WALNUT
  TO 23 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREENBUSH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
  THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
  60 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WALNUT BY 750 PM CDT.
  HEPLER BY 800 PM CDT.
  8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF UNIONTOWN BY 805 PM CDT.
  GIRARD AND 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF REDFIELD BY 810 PM CDT.
  ENGLEVALE BY 815 PM CDT.
  FORT SCOTT AND ARMA BY 820 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF PORTERVILLE...GREENBUSH...BRAZILTON...PETERSBURG...
HIATTVILLE...PAWNEE STATION...FARLINGTON...BEULAH...MARMATON AND
RINGO ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THESE ARE DANGEROUS STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...IF
YOU ARE IN THEIR PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3773 9509 3800 9508 3805 9494 3804 9465
      3804 9464 3751 9462 3735 9508 3738 9510
      3772 9511
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 247DEG 40KT 3762 9528 3732 9529

$$

ANGLE

2 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 180057
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
757 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

KSC011-037-180130-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0221.000000T0000Z-071018T0130Z/
BOURBON KS-CRAWFORD KS-
757 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR BOURBON AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES...

AT 752 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM UNIONTOWN TO
GREENBUSH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  REDFIELD BY 805 PM CDT.
  ENGLEVALE AND ARMA BY 810 PM CDT.
  MULBERRY...ARCADIA AND FULTON BY 815 PM CDT.
  FORT SCOTT BY 820 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF RINGO...HIATTVILLE...POLK...FARLINGTON...MAPLETON...
FRANKLIN...HARDING...PAWNEE STATION...MARMATON AND DEVON ARE IN THE
PATH OF THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THESE ARE DANGEROUS STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...IF
YOU ARE IN THEIR PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3773 9509 3800 9508 3805 9494 3804 9465
      3804 9464 3751 9462 3735 9508 3738 9510
      3772 9511
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 230DEG 48KT 3788 9498 3758 9499

$$

ANGLE

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 180124
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
824 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

KSC011-037-180134-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0221.000000T0000Z-071018T0130Z/
BOURBON KS-CRAWFORD KS-
824 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR BOURBON AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES
EXPIRES AT 830 PM CDT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING ARE EXITING THE WARNED
AREA...THUS THE WARNING IS BEING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3773 9509 3800 9508 3805 9494 3804 9465
      3804 9464 3751 9462 3735 9508 3738 9510
      3772 9511
TIME...MOT...LOC 0124Z 230DEG 48KT 3811 9463 3781 9464

$$

ANGLE

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 17, 7:12 PM CDT, 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 17, 7:12 PM CDT, 23 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
712 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS A GOOD BET LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY BEFORE 3 AM. THERMODYNAMICS REMAIN
VARIABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH INDICES ACTUALLY INCREASING DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER TONIGHT...MUCH CALMER WEATHER WILL
DEVELOP...HOWEVER GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE ACROSS
WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS BEFORE NOON THURSDAY...THEN
REMAIN STREADY OR SLOWLY FALL AS CLOUD COVER AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE OZARKS. THE EASTERN OZARKS
WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE 70S WITH A FEW 80S POSSIBLE IN SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE A POCKET OF WARMER AIR WILL RESIDE THROUGH
THE DAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION FROM COOLER AIR TO MUCH
WARMER AIR AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
92/85H WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE TEENS WHICH WILL PROVIDE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. SUNDAY MAY GET ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY BUT THIS DEPENDS UPON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE
MID/LONG TERM RANGE WHICH REMAINS A PROBLEM WITH TIMING AND THE
OVERALL EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN THE FAVORITE WITH THE MEAN
UPPER AIR FLOW...DIFFERENCES ARISE IN SURFACE
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD HPC
GUIDANCE...BUT HAVE SEVERAL CONCERNS WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
AND HOW LONG IT WILL REMAIN WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
ANYWAY...CONFIDENCE AFTER SUNDAY REMAINS VERY LOW WITH ANY ONE
SOLUTION.

JLT

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME WITH
A SECOND LINE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA FROM 01-09Z. CEILINGS
WILL VARY FROM VFR TO MVFR WITH IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN
AND NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS. COULD ALSO BE SOME RESIDUAL FOG
PRESENT UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

GAEDE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 17, 12:23 PM CDT, 7 hours 12 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1223 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-181730-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1223 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR STRONG AND LONG TRACKED TORNADOES...DAMAGING
 WINDS TO 70 MPH...AND LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65
FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA.

  DISCUSSION:

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE PLAINS. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ARE HELPING TO DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE. THE PRESENCE OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW ROTATING
SUPERCELLS TO FORM ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAM ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE FROM WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BY THURSDAY
MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE AREA. DISCRETE ROTATING SUPERCELLS WILL PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG AND LONG TRACK TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAEDE

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 17, 6:45 PM CDT, 50 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
645 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     TORNADO          1 N WILLARD             37.32N 93.43W
10/17/2007                   GREENE             MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN NORTH OF WILLARD REPORTED BY
            THE SPRINGFIELD BRANSON NATIONAL AIRPORT CONTROL TOWER
            AND A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEE

&&

JLT

Local storm report, Oct 17, 6:46 PM CDT, 49 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
646 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             MORRISVILLE             37.48N  93.43W
10/17/2007  E0.70 INCH       POLK               MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00022

JSS

Local storm report, Oct 17, 6:47 PM CDT, 48 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
647 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     TORNADO          3 S MORRISVILLE         37.44N 93.43W
10/17/2007                   POLK               MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND SOUTH OF
            MORRISVILLE...HOWEVER NO DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED AT THIS
            TIME.

&&

JLT

Local storm report, Oct 17, 6:51 PM CDT, 44 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
651 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     TORNADO          1 S MORRISVILLE         37.47N 93.43W
10/17/2007                   POLK               MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            TORNADO REMAINS ON THE GROUND SOUTH OF MORRISVILLE AT THE
            JUNCTION OF POLK COUNTY ROAD 111 AND FARM ROAD 560. THE
            TORNADO WAS REPORTED MOVING RAPIDLY NORTH NORTHWEST.

&&

JLT

Local storm report, Oct 17, 6:53 PM CDT, 42 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
653 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CAVE SPRINGS            37.35N 93.46W
10/17/2007                   GREENE             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            10 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMB BLOWN DOWN.

&&

JLT

Local storm report, Oct 17, 6:59 PM CDT, 36 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
659 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0657 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     MORRISVILLE             37.48N 93.43W
10/17/2007                   POLK               MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            A WALL CLOUD WAS ROTATING OVER THE TOWN OF MORRISVILLE.

&&

JLT

The office that day

Everything else NWS Springfield, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 17, 8:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Cherokee, Crawford	56 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2007 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.