Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 010026
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
726 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

MOC145-010115-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0206.000000T0000Z-071001T0115Z/
NEWTON MO-
726 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR NEWTON COUNTY...

AT 722 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SILVER CREEK TO
RACINE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  GRANBY BY 740 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF STARK CITY...RITCHEY...NEWTONIA AND WENTWORTH ARE IN THE
PATH OF THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ALSO INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 2 AND 9.

THESE ARE DANGEROUS STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...IF
YOU ARE IN THEIR PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3684 9461 3705 9462 3706 9456 3706 9454
      3706 9420 3705 9418 3704 9407 3685 9407
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 268DEG 34KT 3705 9435 3685 9444

$$

CRAMER

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 010040
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
740 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

MOC145-010115-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0206.000000T0000Z-071001T0115Z/
NEWTON MO-
740 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT 
FOR NEWTON COUNTY...

AT 736 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM DIAMOND TO NEOSHO...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN
NEWTON COUNTY...INCLUDING THE TOWNS OF RITCHEY...STARK CITY AND
NEWTONIA. THIS ALSO INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 4 AND
9.

THESE ARE DANGEROUS STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...IF
YOU ARE IN THEIR PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3684 9461 3696 9461 3706 9453 3706 9420
      3705 9418 3705 9411 3703 9407 3685 9407
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 268DEG 34KT 3705 9420 3685 9429

$$

CRAMER

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 010111
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
811 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

MOC145-010121-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0206.000000T0000Z-071001T0115Z/
NEWTON MO-
811 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN NEWTON COUNTY EXPIRES
AT 815 PM CDT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WERE NO
LONGER SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3684 9461 3696 9461 3706 9453 3706 9420
      3705 9418 3705 9411 3703 9407 3685 9407
TIME...MOT...LOC 0111Z 268DEG 34KT 3706 9383 3686 9392

$$

SCHAUMANN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
630 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

...SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE...

.UPDATE...

BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
QUICKLY EAST FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI ALONG A AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY JUST OF THE FRONT
ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING INTO IOWA WERE SUPPORTING THE STORMS.
AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS IN PLACE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS WITH STORMS ATTEMPTING TO TAKE ON SUPERCELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS. THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH 8 PM ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. THE STORMS WILL ENCOUNTER LESS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS AS THEY PUSH EAST INTO THE OZARKS. WHILE AT LEAST A
SCATTERED LINE OF STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...EXPECT STORM INTENSITY TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER THIS
EVENING.

FOSTER

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITH THE QUICK FLOW AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE LOW WAS QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING DRY LINE JUST NOW PUSHING
THROUGH ICT AS OF 19Z. STRONG PRESSURE RISES ALL DAY BEHIND THE
DRY LINE HELPING TO SURGE THE DRY LINE EASTWARD. STORMS QUICKLY
INITIATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND HAVE ALREADY MERGED INTO A LINEAR
STRUCTURE.

WOULD EXPECT THIS SQUALL LINE TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST SOUTHEAST
INTO THE WESTERN CWA TOWARDS 5 TO 7 PM AND CONTINUING TO SHIFT
EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE EVENING. BEST CHANCES OF
SEVERE WILL BE FROM 5 TO 9 PM WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
18Z SOUNDING OUT OF SPRINGFIELD STILL SHOWS A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS
HOWEVER IT HAS INCREASED MOISTURE QUITE A BIT OVER THE 12Z RUN.
WHILE INSTABILITY/MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE
STORMS THIS EVENING AS THE SQUALL LINE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA...WIND FIELD REMAIN IMPRESSIVE AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEEING SOME DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

DRIER AIR SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH IN BEHIND THE DRY LINE LATER THIS
EVENING AS EVIDENCED BY SURFACE OBS IN CENTRAL/WESTERN KANSAS
TODAY WITH RAPID CLEARING LATER TONIGHT.

QUICK UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL QPF LOOK QUITE IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME
BUT WITH QUICKNESS OF SYSTEM HAVE TRIMMED BACK QPF AMOUNTS FROM
WHAT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FOR NOW. IF TREND CONTINUES
HOWEVER...THIS MIGHT NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD.
NEVERTHELESS...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...

STORMS APPROACHING THE JOPLIN AND SPRINGFIELD TERMINALS WILL BE THE
CONCERN THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH JOPLIN BY 7 PM AND
SPRINGFIELD BY 9 PM. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 MPH
WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE STORMS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS
POSSIBLE IN THE STORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
AS THE STORMS EXIT TO THE EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

FOSTER
&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1257 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-011800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1257 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AND HAIL TO
 THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY NORTH
 AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR FROM AROUND 3 PM THROUGH
 9 PM.

  DISCUSSION:
 A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA EARLY
 THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DRY LINE EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW INTO
 CENTRAL KANSAS. MUCH HIGHER DEW POINTS HAVE SURGED NORTHWARD
 THIS MORNING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE HELPING
 TO MOISTEN UP AND DESTABILIZE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. STRONG TO
 SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE
 THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
 SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR
 AVAILABLE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE
 RULED OUT... MAINLY OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
 MISSOURI.

 THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
 MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING WITH QUICK
 CLEARING EXPECTED BEHIND THE DRY LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

 ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF
 NEXT WORK WEEK BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
 TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG STORMS COULD BE
 POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING
 IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
 ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AND FURTHER
 EAST DURING THE EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG