Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
225 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITH THE QUICK FLOW AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE LOW WAS QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING DRY LINE JUST NOW PUSHING
THROUGH ICT AS OF 19Z. STRONG PRESSURE RISES ALL DAY BEHIND THE
DRY LINE HELPING TO SURGE THE DRY LINE EASTWARD. STORMS QUICKLY
INITIATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND HAVE ALREADY MERGED INTO A LINEAR
STRUCTURE.

WOULD EXPECT THIS SQUALL LINE TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST SOUTHEAST
INTO THE WESTERN CWA TOWARDS 5 TO 7 PM AND CONTINUING TO SHIFT
EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE EVENING. BEST CHANCES OF
SEVERE WILL BE FROM 5 TO 9 PM WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
18Z SOUNDING OUT OF SPRINGFIELD STILL SHOWS A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS
HOWEVER IT HAS INCREASED MOISTURE QUITE A BIT OVER THE 12Z RUN.
WHILE INSTABILITY/MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE
STORMS THIS EVENING AS THE SQUALL LINE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA...WIND FIELD REMAIN IMPRESSIVE AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEEING SOME DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

DRIER AIR SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH IN BEHIND THE DRY LINE LATER THIS
EVENING AS EVIDENCED BY SURFACE OBS IN CENTRAL/WESTERN KANSAS
TODAY WITH RAPID CLEARING LATER TONIGHT.

QUICK UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL QPF LOOK QUITE IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME
BUT WITH QUICKNESS OF SYSTEM HAVE TRIMMED BACK QPF AMOUNTS FROM
WHAT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FOR NOW. IF TREND CONTINUES
HOWEVER...THIS MIGHT NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD.
NEVERTHELESS...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...

STORMS APPROACHING THE JOPLIN AND SPRINGFIELD AIRPORTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS FOR PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THESE AIRFIELDS.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 MPH WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN
THROUGH MOSTLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH WILL TEND TO WANE TO
LOWER SPEEDS AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  WIND DIRECTION WILL
ALSO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST UPON THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

CRAMER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1257 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-011800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1257 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AND HAIL TO
 THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY NORTH
 AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR FROM AROUND 3 PM THROUGH
 9 PM.

  DISCUSSION:
 A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA EARLY
 THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DRY LINE EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW INTO
 CENTRAL KANSAS. MUCH HIGHER DEW POINTS HAVE SURGED NORTHWARD
 THIS MORNING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE HELPING
 TO MOISTEN UP AND DESTABILIZE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. STRONG TO
 SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE
 THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
 SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR
 AVAILABLE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE
 RULED OUT... MAINLY OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
 MISSOURI.

 THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
 MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING WITH QUICK
 CLEARING EXPECTED BEHIND THE DRY LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

 ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF
 NEXT WORK WEEK BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
 TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG STORMS COULD BE
 POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING
 IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
 ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AND FURTHER
 EAST DURING THE EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG