Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
110 AM CDT FRI JUN 08 2007

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION BEGINNING TO TRANSITION INTO LINEAR MODE. TWO AREAS OF
CONCERN AT THIS TIME. FIRST AREA IS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI WHERE SEVERAL SMALL LINE SEGMENTS RESIDE. LATEST LAPS
ANALYSIS ALONG WITH RECENTLY RELEASED KSGF RAOB INDICATE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ON THE ORDER OF -50 TO -75 J/KG HAS DEVELOPED. A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE EXISTS ABOVE THE CAP WITH 1500 J/KG
OR SO OF CAPE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...BUT THIS THREAT IS DIMINISHING WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CAP. BIGGER THREAT APPEARS TO BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
LATEST DATA SUGGESTS A THETA-E DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND
700 MB OF 25-30 DEGREES. THIS COUPLED WITH A 0-2KM SHEAR VECTOR OF
ABOUT 20 KNOTS TOWARDS THE EAST WILL FAVOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
WITH STRONGER CONVECTION PROPAGATING EAST. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SPEED SHEAR WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SEVERE HAIL THREAT.
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND AN
INCOMING COLD FRONT FROM CLINTON TO PARSONS. THIS BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INCREASE AND FILL IN AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT
INCREASES WITH INCOMING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE VICINITY. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
MID LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT. STRONGER
MOMENTUMS WOULD HAVE A TOUGHER TIME TRANSPORTING DOWN IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT...BUT ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE OZARKS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

/922 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2007/

ACTIVE NIGHT OF WEATHER ON TAP.

WHILE THE DRY LINE STALLED OUT TO OUR WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A
COLD FRONT HAS SURGED TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS...ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY LINE DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND PROVIDE THE LIFT NEEDED TO BREAK THE CAP NOTED ON THE
00Z KSGF SOUNDING.

THE CAP HAS WEAKENED SUFFICIENTLY TO OUR WEST (AND AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE) TO ALLOW FOR A FEW TSRA TO DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL KS TO SE
KS. SCT SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND AFFECT EXTREME SE KS AND FAR WESTERN MO.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES
INTO THIS WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A COMBINATION OF ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS ARE FIRST EXPECTED...WITH AN EVENTUAL
MORPH INTO A SQUALL LINE. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

TIMING WISE...AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR CAN
EXPECT STORMS PRIOR TO 3AM...WITH AREAS EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 65
CORRIDOR EXPERIENCE STORMS AFTER 3AM.

GAGAN

/320 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2007/

THE FULL SUITE OF SEVERE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.  WILL BE MONITORING SATELLITE TRENDS CLOSELY THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CAP EROSION.  THE LATEST SREF
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS ABOUT A 30% CHANCE OF THE CAP
BREAKING PRIOR TO 00Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING WEST OF
HIGHWAY 65.

OTHERWISE MORE NUMEROUS STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER
THE FLINT HILLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY
SPREADING INTO THE OZARKS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  HIGH END INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS SUGGEST THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL MODES OF
SEVERE PHENOMENA.

CRAMER

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

INTENSE CYCLONE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD
PROVIDE A TRANSITION FROM A SPRING TO A MORE SUMMER TYPE PATTERN.
FRONT/DRYLINE WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  SEVERE POTENTIAL IS DEFINITELY THERE. CURRENTLY UNDER A
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT BUT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PRESENT FOR SUPERCELL
FORMATION.  A COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL ALLOW CAP TO WEAKEN SOMETIME THIS EVENING.

FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY AND BECOMES
EAST-WEST ORIENTED ACROSS ARKANSAS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES ON FRIDAY.  SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO WARRANT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALONG ARKANSAS BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MEAN TROUGH BEGINS TO SET UP ACROSS WESTERN U.S. ON SUNDAY ALLOWING
RIDGING TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE OZARKS.  AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES ON
TO THE EAST...CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE
AND WILL MORE LIKELY DEPEND ON THE MOVEMENT OF DISCRETE UPPER LEVEL
WAVES ACROSS THE TOP OF THE FLAT RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT TO
JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.  GUIDANCE TEMPS SEEMED
REASONABLE AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY ADJUSTMENTS.

GAEDE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z KSGF/KJLN TAFS: COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SGF AND
JLN TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 10Z. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

CEILING AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR EXCEPT IN THUNDERSTORMS
WHERE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. UPON THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT...EXPECTED WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

HATCH

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
756 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-090100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
756 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
 EXCESS OF 70 MPH...LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...AND
 ISOLATED TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED
 AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT EXTREME
 SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS LATER THIS
 EVENING...THEN SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
 OVERNIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

 AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIRMASS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
 REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A DRY LINE WILL SURGE INTO THE
 FLINT HILLS REGION OF KANSAS AND TRIGGER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
 THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE
 MISSOURI OZARKS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE
 TO THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE SOME LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE
 FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
 EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME STORMS MAY STILL BE SEVERE WITH
 DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA
 DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH LATER IN
 THE WEEKEND BRINGING BACK THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND
 MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER 9 PM THIS EVENING
 WEST OF A LINE FROM CASSVILLE TO WARSAW LINE INITIALLY...AND THEN
 ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OZARKS LATER TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WISE/CRAMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1056 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1043 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S PITTSBURG           37.40N 94.70W
06/07/2007                   CRAWFORD           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL LIMBS DOWN...PEA SIZE HAIL ALSO REPORTED.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1109 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1102 PM     HAIL             4 NNE NASHVILLE         37.43N 94.46W
06/07/2007  E0.88 INCH       BARTON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ACCOMPANIED BY ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1117 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CAPLINGER MILLS         37.79N 93.80W
06/07/2007                   CEDAR              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1146 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JOPLIN                  37.08N 94.51W
06/07/2007                   JASPER             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN JOPLIN.

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1250 AM CDT FRI JUN 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 AM     TSTM WND GST     PIERCE CITY             36.95N 94.00W
06/08/2007  E50 MPH          LAWRENCE           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BARJENBRUCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1254 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007

MOZ093-101-080630-
NEWTON MO-MCDONALD MO-
1254 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR MCDONALD AND NEWTON COUNTIES UNTIL
130 AM CDT...

AT 1252 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SENECA...OR 14 MILES EAST OF MIAMI...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NEWTON AND NORTHERN MCDONALD COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
CITIES OF SENECA...GOODMAN AND NEOSHO...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

WISE