Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1245 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z KSGF/KJLN TAFS...CONVECTION OVER OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICHY AREA ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY VFR AT BOTH THE KSGF
AND KJLN TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING. MENTIONED VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH TAF SITES. WILL MONITOR AND AMEND AS NEEDED.

HATCH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 255 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2007/

LATEST RADAR IMAGES SHOW A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS EXITING THE
VICHY/ROLLA AND VERSAILLES AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LOOKING FURTHER
TO OUR SOUTHWEST...ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS DEVELOPING OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

WITH A LACK OF ANY WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARIES...WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA AS
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS INTERACTS WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING. FORECAST
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION AS SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT INCREASES WITH CLOSER
PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE REFLECTED THIS TREND IN POP GRIDS WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS MARGINAL WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. LONG AND THIN POSITIVE AREA ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL OVER AN INCH
SUGGESTS CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR FORECAST TREND FOR FRIDAY. THE ONLY
ADJUSTMENT WILL BE TO SHIFT PRECIP CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AS UPPER
LOW SINKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT TO SEE DRIER CONDITIONS
DEVELOP AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE TRIMMED TEMPS
BACK A COUPLE DEGREES OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR GREATER INFLUENCE FROM OHIO RIVER HIGH...WITH WARMER
TEMPS...AROUND MID 80S...OVER OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES.

TERRY

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z KSGF/KJLN TAFS...CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN FORMED
OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THERE IS STILL QUESTION IF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OVER
THE TAF SITES...AS IT MAY STAY TO THE WEST OF THE KJLN TAF SITE.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF
THIS ACTIVITY...HAVE LEFT THUNDER AND SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS.
WILL MONITOR AND AMEND TO ADD IF NEEDED.

WISE
&&

.HYDROLOGY...

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING OVER THE OSAGE RIVER BASIN ALONG WITH
RESIDUAL FLOODING ALONG CREEKS AND STREAMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS
COUNTIES AND VERNON COUNTY MO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WILL
LEAD TO RAPID RUNOFF AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN AND NEAR LOW LYING
AREAS.

TERRY
&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-111800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
100 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
  EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE
  ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MOST OF THE
  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING
  INCREASES INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
  THEN DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

  THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...
  WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN
  THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK. A
  FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
  PEAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY. LOCALIZED
  FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
  EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. THUNDERSTORM ARE
  AGAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
  THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
  HOWEVER...STORM SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO FORWARD REPORTS OF
  FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CLAYCOMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1241 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W ELDON               38.35N 92.62W
05/10/2007                   MILLER             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLASH FLOODING AT INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 52 AND Y
            HIGHWAY

&&

GCLAYCOM