Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
625 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2007

.UPDATE...

ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUED AT LATE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHEAST
KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE SUPPORTED BY A
MINOR IMPULSE RIDING NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

FOSTER

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY.

DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PUSHED THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE CWA IN CENTRAL MISSOURI
AND DIMINISHING.  IN ITS WAKE...SOME CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM AT AND ABOVE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY.  SURFACE BASED CAPES WERE FROM 1500 TO
2000 J/KG WITH NO INHIBITION.  SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AS A
RESULT WITH ONE OR TWO CORES HAVING PRODUCED QUARTER SIZE HAIL SO
FAR.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

SCATTERED STRONG STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING DURING THE TIME OF PEAK INSTABILITY.  OF PARTICULAR CONCERN
WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF REDEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE FLOODING IS ONGOING FROM TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE WEEK.  CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

UPPER LOW WILL BE ON THE MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  WHILE MAIN
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH MORE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE UPPER LOW...WILL STILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE CWA AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...SIMILAR
TO TODAY.

CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD END BY FRIDAY EVENING AS UPPER RIDGING
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERGO CHANGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.  925/850
TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT SURFACE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR OVER THE WEEKEND AND MAIN PRECIPITATION AREAS WILL BE
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND FURTHER
NORTH ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
FLATTEN HEADING INTO MONDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MAKING
ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY.  HAVE INTRODUCED 20 TO
30 POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONED
OVER THE CWA.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...

A VEIL OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE JOPLIN VICINITY BUT
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. GIVEN THE MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. MVFR VISIBILITY IN LIGHT FOG WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
SPRINGFIELD AND JOPLIN TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING WITH THE
HEATING OF THE DAY.

FOSTER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
800 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-101100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
800 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
  KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
  SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

  LOW LYING AREAS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
  MISSOURI WILL REMAIN FLOODED FROM HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED
  ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
  WEEK. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED
  FLOODING...MAINLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN
  MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG/FOSTER