Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
255 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGES SHOW A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS EXITING THE
VICHY/ROLLA AND VERSAILLES AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LOOKING FURTHER
TO OUR SOUTHWEST...ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS DEVELOPING OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

WITH A LACK OF ANY WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARIES...WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA AS
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS INTERACTS WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING. FORECAST
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION AS SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT INCREASES WITH CLOSER
PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE REFLECTED THIS TREND IN POP GRIDS WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS MARGINAL WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. LONG AND THIN POSITIVE AREA ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL OVER AN INCH SUGGESTS
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR FORECAST TREND FOR FRIDAY. THE ONLY
ADJUSTMENT WILL BE TO SHIFT PRECIP CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AS UPPER
LOW SINKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT TO SEE DRIER CONDITIONS
DEVELOP AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE TRIMMED TEMPS
BACK A COUPLE DEGREES OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR GREATER INFLUENCE FROM OHIO RIVER HIGH...WITH WARMER
TEMPS...AROUND MID 80S...OVER OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES.

TERRY

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z KSGF/KJLN TAFS...CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN FORMED
OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THERE IS STILL QUESTION IF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OVER
THE TAF SITES...AS IT MAY STAY TO THE WEST OF THE KJLN TAF SITE.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF
THIS ACTIVITY...HAVE LEFT THUNDER AND SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS.
WILL MONITOR AND AMEND TO ADD IF NEEDED.

WISE
&&

.HYDROLOGY...

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING OVER THE OSAGE RIVER BASIN ALONG WITH
RESIDUAL FLOODING ALONG CREEKS AND STREAMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS
COUNTIES AND VERNON COUNTY MO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WILL
LEAD TO RAPID RUNOFF AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN AND NEAR LOW LYING
AREAS.

TERRY
&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
433 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-111115-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
433 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
  THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MOST OF THE STORMS ARE
  EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS DAYTIME HEATING
  INCREASES INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA.

  THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...
  WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN
  THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK. A
  FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
  QUARTERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY. LOCALIZED
  FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
  EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
  HOWEVER...STORM SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO FORWARD REPORTS OF
  FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY