Flash Flood Warning 213, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
318 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2007

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM JUST EAST OF SEDALIA TO CHANUTE
TO SOUTH OF WICHITA CONTINUES IT SLOW MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON. WE SAW JUST ENOUGH CLEARING TO DESTABILIZE OUR VERY
MOIST AIRMASS AND GET ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS GOING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL THE HEAVY
AND PROLONGED RAINFALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT STALLS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE FAVORED OUTPUT OF THE
NAM12 WHICH HAS BEEN HANDLING ONGOING PRECIP VERY WELL THUS FAR.
WITH THIS IN MIND WE SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE PRECIP THROUGH THE
EVENING CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD TO
THE I-44 CORRIDOR. ALREADY SEEING TRAINING STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS ORIENTATION OF FRONT LINES UP
PARALLEL TO 700 MB FLOW. INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN INTERSTATE 44 AND THE ARKANSAS
BORDER. AS TROPICAL MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT TO SEE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDE
OVER THE FRONT. ALSO COULD SEE EVEN MORE MOISTURE ADDED TO THE MIX
WITH REMNANTS OF HENRIETTE. THE LATEST PRECIP FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS
GENERATED OFF THE NAM SHOW AN AXIS OF WIDESPREAD 5-7 INCHES BY
SUNDAY EVENING OVER DENT/SHANNON/TEXAS/LACLEDE COUNTIES. STILL
HARD TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THESE ACCUMULATIONS WILL SET
UP...HOWEVER IT LOOKS PRETTY LIKELY THAT SOME LOCATIONS WILL GET
THESE AMOUNTS...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS WELL OVER 7 INCHES.

FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WILL CONTINUE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SOMETIME AROUND MONDAY OR
TUESDAY MAY COMPLICATE FORECAST A BIT.

TERRY
&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS...VERY COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL TRANSITION TO PRONOUNCED MVFR
CEILINGS BY THIS EVENING WITH AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITIES (+TSRA).
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW FROM
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE/LOW CONDENSATION
LEVELS...WILL LEAD TO IFR CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OZARK
PLATEAU. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH AN
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS. IF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DOESNT MOVE ACROSS THE OZARKS PLATEAU...OR EVEN
STALLS...WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH PERSISTENT IFR CEILINGS AND
POSSIBLY LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TOWARD 12Z. BETWEEN
12-18Z...CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITION AND REMNANTS
OF THE TROPICAL CIRCULATION NOW ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO UPDATE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DURING THE
OUTLOOK TIME PERIOD TO PINPOINT THE LOWEST CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
AS THE WEATHER FORECAST WILL BECOME COMPLICATED.

JLT

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ073-097-101.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1255 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-081200-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1255 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2007

...HEAVY RAIN WITH POTENTIAL FLOODING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. THE PRIMARY THREAT
FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. A
FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF NICKELS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND MEANDER OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI DURING
THE WEEKEND. AS TROPICAL MOISTURE OVERRIDES THE FRONT...SEVERAL
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI...THROUGH
SUNDAY. SOME AREAS COULD SEE UP TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A
FOOT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

LOCATIONS ALONG THE ELK...SPRING...AND JAMES RIVERS AND SHOAL CREEK
WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH MID EVENING. STORM
 SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY REPORTS OF FLOODING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY