Flash Flood Warning 209, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
315 AM CDT FRI SEP 7 2007

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN FOR
TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED
TO COVER THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA AND WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL
NOON ON SUNDAY.

THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARRIVES TODAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY THIS FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR
KANSAS CITY SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR WICHITA. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE AREA OF RAIN NOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS AND
NORTHWEST MISSOURI. DURING THE DAY...THIS FRONT WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN HIGH. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THIS FRONT TO WORK WITH...
THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IS HIGH TODAY.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF STALLING THIS FRONT NEAR THE
MISSOURI/ARKANSAS STATE LINE OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH THE ORIENTATION
OF THIS FRONT RESIDING PERPENDICULAR TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE. ANOTHER FACTOR IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE HENRETTE. THIS MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY IN THE PANHANDLE OF
TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. IF THIS
MOISTURE CAN REACH SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER. DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY WHERE THIS FRONT
STALLS AND WHERE THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE HENRETTE ENDS UP...SOME
COUNTIES IN CENTRAL KANSAS COULD BE SHAVED FROM THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRING CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONT.

THE LAST CHALLENGE TO THE FORECAST IS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY
BRING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL UPON SATURATED SOILS...THUS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING.  AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT...DRY AND COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL PUT AN END TO THE THREAT
OF HEAVY RAIN.

ANGLE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 0600 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES
TO EVOLVE OVER NORTHEAST KS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A STRONG LOW
LEVEL 850MB FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA OF
STORMS...AND WE SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SFC WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY GUSTY WITH SUSTAINED 15 KTS AT
KSGF/KJLN...AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY WELL MIXED...SO DECIDED
NOT INCLUDE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ATTM. TAFS SHOULD START OUT FAIRLY
BENIGN/VFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT LOWER MVFR/LOW END VFR
CEILINGS SHOULD START TO AFFECT THE AREA BY FRI MORNING WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. PROGGED SOUNDINGS DONT FULLY SATURATE THE LOWER
LEVELS...SO AM RELUCTANT TO GO INTO THE IFR CATEGORY FOR ANY LENGTH
OF TIME FRI...BUT HEAVIER AREAS OF RAIN WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PERIODS
OF IFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL
CHANCES OF RAIN FRI NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A FRONT BECOMING
STALLED OVER SOUTHERN MO/AR BORDER AREA. DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI FROM 7 AM
FRIDAY UNIL NOON SUNDAY.
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH SOUTHEAST KANSAS FROM 7 AM FRIDAY UNTIL NOON
SUNDAY.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1145 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-071800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1145 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DEVELOP SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TOWARD
SUNRISE. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE LOW...BUT STRONGER STORMS WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. .

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

DSA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
347 AM CDT FRI SEP 7 2007

MOZ056-070915-
MORGAN MO-
347 AM CDT FRI SEP 7 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR MORGAN COUNTY UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

AT 344 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR VERSAILLES...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL MORGAN
COUNTY...INCLUDING THE TOWNS OF VERSAILLES AND BARNETT.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LINDENBERG