Flash Flood Warning 165, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
305 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

.DISCUSSION...

STORMS FIRED UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SHEAR AXIS
TRACKED ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MO AND INTERACTED WITH
RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. SO FAR WE RECEIVED A REPORT OF
PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IN DOUGLAS COUNTY WITH THE STRONGEST STORM
SO FAR. OTHER STORMS HAVE MAINLY BEEN HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH
RADAR ESTIMATING RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES PER
HOUR.

ALTHOUGH STORMS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED WEST OF SPRINGFIELD SO FAR
TODAY...WE SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER EASTERN
KANSAS SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD OUR KANSAS AND EXTREME
WESTERN MISSOURI COUNTIES. SEEING THIS MOISTURE MOVING OVER AN
ALREADY VERY UNSTABLE AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL BE
KEEPING STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT ALL AREAS.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY IMPACTS OF
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM AND CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVES COME INTO
PHASE. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
THROUGH THIS TIME AS AXIS OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SKIRTS THE
SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE OZARKS. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WILL
DECREASE POPS AS NORTHERN PACIFIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HAVE
CAUTIOUSLY KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWEST INTO THE
OHIO/MISSOURI VALLEY.

FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH
SUNDAY...COULD SEE SOME PRECIP CHANCES INCREASED...ESPECIALLY IN THE
FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER LOOKS DRY AND WARMER
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.

TERRY
&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z KSGF/KJLN TAFS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN AREA OF INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING
FROM OSAGE BEACH TO BRANSON...SO WILL CARRY VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SPRINGFIELD TAF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO CARRIED
VICINITY SHOWERS FOR JOPLIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINK BETTER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LATER TODAY WHEN SECOND
BATCH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE
MOVES CLOSER TO THE AIRPORT.

WILL CONTINUE VICINITY THUNDER FOR BOTH AIRPORTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CLIPS THE CORNER OF MO.

HATCH/TERRY

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1220 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-101100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1220 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
 HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HAIL TO THE
 SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS 60 MPH.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
 EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS. STORMS WILL
 BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS...ALONG AND EAST OF A
 LINE FROM ROLLA TO SPRINGFIELD TO CASSVILLE...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

  DISCUSSION:

  AS DAYTIME HEATING INTERACTS WITH INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE
  AREA...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION WILL ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
  THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
  OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

 AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
 IF THE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF
 TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG TO
 SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
 BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE SEVERE
 WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
 BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF A LINE FROM ROLLA TO
 CASSVILLE THROUGH 8 PM.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
116 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

MOZ071-091845-
PHELPS MO-
116 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PHELPS COUNTY UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

AT 113 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF ST. JAMES...OR 10 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ROLLA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
221 PM CDT MON JUL 09 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     HAIL             GOODHOPE                36.91N 92.81W
07/09/2007  E0.88 INCH       DOUGLAS            MO   PUBLIC

&&

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
227 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

MOZ090-092000-
GREENE MO-
227 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR GREENE COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 221 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF REPUBLIC...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
257 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

MOZ091-092-092030-
WRIGHT MO-WEBSTER MO-
257 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR WEBSTER AND WRIGHT COUNTIES UNTIL
330 PM CDT...

AT 255 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SEYMOUR...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MARSHFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
358 PM CDT MON JUL 09 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NE SPRINGFIELD        37.21N 93.27W
07/09/2007  M1.25 INCH       GREENE             MO   PUBLIC

            FELL IN LESS THAN 30 MINUTES

&&

BARJENBRUCH