Flash Flood Warning 123, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1000 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

.UPDATE...

MADE SOME UPDATES BASED ON TRENDS. HAVE SEEN A COUPLE DISTURBANCES
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH
THE SECOND NOW MOVING THROUGH THE MID MO REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.8-1.9 INCHES ON THE LATEST KSGF SOUNDING WITH A HIGH
FREEZING LEVEL IS PRODUCING SOME EFFICIENT CONVECTION...BUT STORM
MOVEMENT HAD BEEN FAST...SO HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE OCCURRING ONLY WHERE
SHOWERS CAN TRAIN.

MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT...OR AT LEAST A WEAK PREFRONTAL
TROUGH...WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE CWFA LATER TONIGHT. SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS INTO
NORTHERN MO. WEAK FORCING UP AND OVER THIS BOUNDARY SEEMS TO BE
WHERE THE MORE WIDESPREAD HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR...BUT
SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER IN SOUTHEAST OK JUST
EAST OF AN MCV NEEDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL.

HAVE NOT CHANGED ANYTHING AS FAR AS THE FLOOD WATCH IS CONCERNED.
HAVE TWEAKED THE FORECAST A BIT...WITH THE HIGHEST QPF AND POPS OVER
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWFA. DSA

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
INSTABILITY DEVELOPED AS TEMPERATURES ROSE INTO THE LOWER AND MID
80S.

THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC SITUATION REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING WITH A STAGNANT UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA CONTINUING TO FEED DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE OZARKS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND EXTENDS FROM
NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WITH A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH ROUGHLY FROM SEDALIA TO PONCA CITY. THE ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS LINE HAS HELPED FOCUS CONVECTION OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE EXCEEDED TWO INCHES ON SOUNDINGS TO
OUR SOUTHWEST...WITH 12Z KSGF PWATS JUST OVER 1.80 INCHES. GIVEN
THE CONTINUED ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT LIFT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ASSISTED BY BROAD DIFFLUENCE FROM UPPER LOW OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES...PLAN TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. BASED ON QPF OUTPUT FROM THE NAM AND
GFS...HAVE EXTENDED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE WATCH INTO OUR
EXTREME NORTHEAST COUNTIES TO INCLUDE LAKE OF THE OZARKS...FORT
WOOD AND ROLLA.

BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...DRIER AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY WORK
SOUTHWARD AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE SLIGHTLY
PROBLEMATIC IF IT DOES NOT WEAKEN AND SHEAR OUT TO OUR SOUTH AS
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. HOWEVER THE LATEST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THIS FEATURE MORE TO OUR SOUTH AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST AFTER SATURDAY WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES LIKELY REACHING THE 90S BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TREND WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND
QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES PASSING OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

TERRY

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 0000 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
IL INTO NORTHERN MO AND NE KS WITH A PERSISTENT WEAK UPPER
TROUGH/LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. INTERMITTENT SHOWERS HAVE
OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH TAF LOCATIONS...BUT CONDITIONS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. IN THE NEAR TERM NOT LOOKING AT MUCH
OF A CHANGE WITH MOST AREA METARS VFR. THE FRONT OR PREFRONTAL
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL EDGE SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND THU MORNING...AND SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...SO EXPECT A GENERAL
DOWNWARD TREND IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY LATE TONIGHT WITH MVFR AND
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>081-088>091-
     093>095-101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1256 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-291800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1256 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING...WIND GUSTS
 IN EXCESS OF 60MPH...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
 AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  HOWEVER...STRONG TO
 SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER AN AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
 FROM TABLE ROCK LAKE TO SALEM MISSOURI.

  DISCUSSION:

 AN AIRMASS LOADED IN MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
 EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS.  A FRONTAL
 SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION THIS
 EVENING...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS
 AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH
 THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...CAUSING FLASH FLOODING IN MANY AREAS.

 MEANWHILE...THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI IS BECOMING UNSTABLE
 THIS AFTERNOON. FULL SUNSHINE HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
 80S...CREATING A SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
 OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 8 PM THIS EVENING.
 DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

 A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR
 THE OUTLOOK AREA INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
 WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...AND POSSIBLY EVEN SUNDAY
 OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. HEAVY
 RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST INTO
 THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN
 DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
 REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER / SCHAUMANN