Flash Flood Warning 120, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 281037
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
532 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

MOC011-281400-
/X.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0120.000000T0000Z-070628T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BARTON MO-
532 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT FOR
BARTON COUNTY...

AT 528 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT RAIN HAD TAPERED OFF ACROSS BARTON COUNTY. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL 
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WARNED AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING 
HOURS PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE HALF OF AN INCH. RADAR 
ESTIMATED THAT ONE AND A HALF TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN 
ACROSS MUCH OF BARTON COUNTY SINCE MIDNIGHT.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO 
OCCUR ON SMALL STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS. 

MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO 
CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. 

LAT...LON 3764 9411 3733 9413 3733 9431 3735 9442
      3735 9458 3764 9460

$$

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 281352
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
851 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

MOC011-281401-
/X.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0120.000000T0000Z-070628T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BARTON MO-
851 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 900 AM CDT FOR BARTON
COUNTY...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA WERE BEGINNING TO RECEDE...ENDING THE 
FLOOD THREAT FOR NOW.  

HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN MISSOURI 
TODAY...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING. IF 
FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW 
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3764 9411 3733 9413 3733 9431 3735 9442
      3735 9458 3764 9460

$$

CRAMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1000 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

.UPDATE...

MADE SOME UPDATES BASED ON TRENDS. HAVE SEEN A COUPLE DISTURBANCES
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH
THE SECOND NOW MOVING THROUGH THE MID MO REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.8-1.9 INCHES ON THE LATEST KSGF SOUNDING WITH A HIGH
FREEZING LEVEL IS PRODUCING SOME EFFICIENT CONVECTION...BUT STORM
MOVEMENT HAD BEEN FAST...SO HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE OCCURRING ONLY WHERE
SHOWERS CAN TRAIN.

MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT...OR AT LEAST A WEAK PREFRONTAL
TROUGH...WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE CWFA LATER TONIGHT. SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS INTO
NORTHERN MO. WEAK FORCING UP AND OVER THIS BOUNDARY SEEMS TO BE
WHERE THE MORE WIDESPREAD HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR...BUT
SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER IN SOUTHEAST OK JUST
EAST OF AN MCV NEEDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL.

HAVE NOT CHANGED ANYTHING AS FAR AS THE FLOOD WATCH IS CONCERNED.
HAVE TWEAKED THE FORECAST A BIT...WITH THE HIGHEST QPF AND POPS OVER
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWFA. DSA

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
INSTABILITY DEVELOPED AS TEMPERATURES ROSE INTO THE LOWER AND MID
80S.

THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC SITUATION REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING WITH A STAGNANT UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA CONTINUING TO FEED DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE OZARKS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND EXTENDS FROM
NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WITH A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH ROUGHLY FROM SEDALIA TO PONCA CITY. THE ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS LINE HAS HELPED FOCUS CONVECTION OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE EXCEEDED TWO INCHES ON SOUNDINGS TO
OUR SOUTHWEST...WITH 12Z KSGF PWATS JUST OVER 1.80 INCHES. GIVEN
THE CONTINUED ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT LIFT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ASSISTED BY BROAD DIFFLUENCE FROM UPPER LOW OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES...PLAN TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. BASED ON QPF OUTPUT FROM THE NAM AND
GFS...HAVE EXTENDED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE WATCH INTO OUR
EXTREME NORTHEAST COUNTIES TO INCLUDE LAKE OF THE OZARKS...FORT
WOOD AND ROLLA.

BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...DRIER AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY WORK
SOUTHWARD AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE SLIGHTLY
PROBLEMATIC IF IT DOES NOT WEAKEN AND SHEAR OUT TO OUR SOUTH AS
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. HOWEVER THE LATEST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THIS FEATURE MORE TO OUR SOUTH AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST AFTER SATURDAY WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES LIKELY REACHING THE 90S BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TREND WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND
QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES PASSING OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

TERRY

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 0000 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
IL INTO NORTHERN MO AND NE KS WITH A PERSISTENT WEAK UPPER
TROUGH/LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. INTERMITTENT SHOWERS HAVE
OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH TAF LOCATIONS...BUT CONDITIONS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. IN THE NEAR TERM NOT LOOKING AT MUCH
OF A CHANGE WITH MOST AREA METARS VFR. THE FRONT OR PREFRONTAL
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL EDGE SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND THU MORNING...AND SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...SO EXPECT A GENERAL
DOWNWARD TREND IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY LATE TONIGHT WITH MVFR AND
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>081-088>091-
     093>095-101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
820 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-281100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
820 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

 WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...MAINLY
LATE TONIGHT...AS A FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COUPLED
WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TAPS INTO A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 44...ESPECIALLY FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE
OSAGE RIVER BASIN IN WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THURSDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE
SOUTH. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI
OZARKS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...EMERGENCY  MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
RELAY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND FLOODING SHOULD THEY
OCCUR.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

DSA