River Flood Warning 57, NWS Seattle, WA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PST SUN DEC 2 2007

.SYNOPSIS...THE THIRD WEATHER SYSTEM IN THIS SERIES OF THREE WILL
ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT AND BRING HIGH WIND...HEAVY RAIN...AND MUCH
WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. FLOODING IS LIKELY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS POSITIVELY BENIGN BY
COMPARISON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM ROLLED THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTS REACHED 53 KNOTS ON THE COAST AND 45 KNOTS
PARTS OF THE INTERIOR. THIS FEATURE IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND WE
ARE NO IN THE RELOADING STAGE AS THE THIRD IN THIS SERIES OF THREE
APPROACHES. AS A RESULT...EVEN THROUGH IT REMAINS FAIRLY BREEZY MOST
AREAS THE WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS EARLIER. WE SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL UNTIL SHORTLY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN
THINGS SHOULD START RAMPING UP ONCE AGAIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE FELT ALONG THE COAST WITH A SECONDARY AREA OVER THE NORTHERN HOOD
CANAL...ADMIRALTY INLET...ENE INTO SNOHOMISH COUNTY AS A MESOLOW
CRANKS UP IN THE LEE OF THE OLYMPICS. THIS FEATURE ALREADY PRESENT
AND EXPECT THIS TO TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT. THIS IS NOT A
QUICK HIT TYPE OF SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE
WINDS WILL BE RATHER STRONG THROUGH MONDAY. SO WINDY CONDITIONS INTO
MONDAY EVENING WITH A PEAK SOMETIME BETWEEN 3 AM AND 10 AM DEPENDING
ON YOUR LOCATION. WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS 1-3000 FT WILL BE VERY
STRONG AND GREATER THAN 50KT FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR AT LEAST 12
HOURS SO GUST POTENTIAL IS PRETTY GOOD ON THE OCCASIONS WE CAN MIX
THAT DOWN. RIDGE TOP WINDS WILL ALSO BE VERY STRONG...AND LIKELY THE
STRONGEST WE HAVE HAD SINCE LAST YEAR.

ANOTHER ISSUE TO DEAL WITH IS THE SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE
OLYMPICS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF GOING OVER TO RAIN WITH HURRICANE
RIDGE UP TO 33 DEGREES. AT 4PM OVER KUIL THE FREEZING LEVEL WAS
AROUND 5500 FT AND ACCORDING TO ACARS DATA IT IS ABOUT 6600 FT OVER
KSEA AT 8 PM. SO PRETTY MUCH LIQUID FROM HERE ON OUT OLYMPICS...AND
A LOT OF IT AT THAT. ALREADY HAVE FLOOD WARNINGS BEING ISSUED FOR
SOME RIVERS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO GO OVER MONDAY. THIS WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT FLOOD EVENT FOR THE OLYMPICS.

FOR THE CASCADES...IT APPEARS THAT WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH SNOW
FOR THE MOST PART BUT THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THINGS ARE CHANGING UP
THERE A BIT QUICKER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. STEVENS PASS (AT 5000
FT LEVEL) HAS A GOOD SW WIND NOW AND DOT REPORTS HAVE FREEZING RAIN
AT SNOQUALMIE PASS. WILL LIKELY TWEAK THE ZONE WORDING A BIT...BUT
LEAVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING AS IS. OVERALL IT WILL GO OVER TO
RAIN IN THE CASCADES AS WELL WHICH WILL ALSO POSE SOME PROBLEMS WITH
RIVERS THAT DRAIN OFF THEM. LOOKING FOR AN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES OF
RAIN IN MANY LOCATIONS OF THE CASCADES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. SO
STAY TUNED FOR FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THOSE RIVERS AS WELL.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIE DOWN AND RAIN TAPER OFF SLOWLY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT LEAVING THE AREA IN A COOLER (THAN THE MID 50S OF
MONDAY) AND SHOWERY PATTERN TUESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
INTO WEDNESDAY.  CERNIGLIA

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NEW GFS HAS SOME DRYING
TREND LATER IN THE WEEK BUT GAVE IT LITTLE NOTICE OTHER THAN TO
LOWER POPS A BIT AND PUT FEWER CLOUDS IN GRIDS. BROADBRUSH SHOWERS
OTHERWISE. BURKE

&&

.AVALANCHE...EXISTING UNSTABLE SNOWPACK STRUCTURE AND INCREASING
LOADS DUE TO STRONG WINDS...VERY HEAVY SNOW THEN RAIN...AND WARMING
TREND FULLY EXPECTED TO CAUSE AN AVALANCHE CYCLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. BACK COUNTRY TRAVEL IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN NOT RECOMMENDED ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PLEASE SEE WWW.NWAC.US FOR DETAILS. FERBER

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER WRN WA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE AREA.  SUSTAINED WIND OF 20 TO 35
KT ARE ANTICIPATED OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR W/ GUSTS OF 35 TO 50
KT. THE N INTERIOR WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS.

WINDS ALOFT WILL BE VERY STRONG -- AROUND 45 KT AT 1500 FT AND 60 KT
AT 3000 FT. COMPRESSION PROBLEMS POSSIBLE.

A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND MON WITH
MORE OR LESS CONTINUOUS RAIN...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AT KSEA...SOUTH WIND WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING BECOME SUSTAINED 20
KT GUSTING 30 KT...THEN INCREASE TO 25 KT GUSTING TO 35 KT EARLY MON
MORNING.

MERCER

&&

.MARINE...VERY STRONG WINDS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE OREGON COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING.  THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD NWD INTO THE
WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  A STORM WARNING WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. GALE WARNINGS WILL
BE IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND MON FOR THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND
INLAND WATERS. IN ADDITION COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 28 TO 38 FT
MON WITH SEVERE BAR CONDITIONS...HIGH SURF...AND POSSIBLE COASTAL
FLOODING.

MERCER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH 4 PM FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTH
 COAST...EASTERN AND WESTERN STRAIT AREA...ADMIRALTY INLET AREA...
 HOOD CANAL AREA...EVERETT AND VICINITY...LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA.
.HIGH WIND WATCH 10 PM THROUGH 4 PM CASCADES AND OLYMPICS.
.WIND ADVISORY ALL OTHER LOWLAND ZONES.
.FLOOD WATCH MOST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON.
.WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE CASCADES.
.COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE COAST.
.HIGH SURF WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE COAST.
.STORM WARNING COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.
.GALE WARNING ALL REMAINING WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.
.SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
456 PM PST SUN DEC 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1011 AM     SNOW             1 N FERNDALE            48.87N 122.60W
12/02/2007  M5.5 INCH        WHATCOM            WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            5.5 INCHES SNOW TOTAL...AND STILL SNOWING.

1045 AM     SNOW             3 WSW BELFAIR           47.43N 122.89W
12/02/2007  M6.0 INCH        MASON              WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

1105 AM     SNOW             3 SW BRINNON            47.65N 122.94W
12/02/2007  M6.0 INCH        JEFFERSON          WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            6 INCHES OVERNIGHT.

1201 PM     SNOW             5 WNW SEKIU             48.29N 124.41W
12/02/2007  M4.0 INCH        CLALLAM            WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT ELEVATION OF 100 FT.

1220 PM     HIGH SUST WINDS  4 ENE VAIL              46.86N 122.57W
12/02/2007  M53.00 MPH       THURSTON           WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LAKE LAWRENCE, WINDS 53 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 62
            MPH.

1240 PM     SNOW             5 NNW SHELTON           47.29N 123.13W
12/02/2007  M8.0 INCH        MASON              WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STILL SNOWING, 24 DEGREES F. 360 FT ELEVATION.

0117 PM     SNOW             6 NNW POTLATCH          47.44N 123.21W
12/02/2007  M16.0 INCH       MASON              WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0134 PM     SNOW             3 WNW SEKIU             48.28N 124.37W
12/02/2007  M3.5 INCH        CLALLAM            WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3.5 INCH TOTAL, TURNING TO RAIN.

0140 PM     SNOW             1 ESE COVILLE           48.12N 123.60W
12/02/2007  M2.0 INCH        CLALLAM            WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 INCHES NEW SNOW, 4 INCHES TOTAL. TURNING TO RAIN.

0400 PM     SNOW             4 W NAPAVINE            46.58N 122.98W
12/02/2007  M3.5 INCH        LEWIS              WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0400 PM     FLOOD            4 W NAPAVINE            46.58N 122.98W
12/02/2007                   LEWIS              WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SMALL CREEKS AND STEARNS CREEK ARE FLOODING.

&&

CERNIGLIA