Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
305 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...AND EAST TO THE
COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LEE TROUGH AND GOOD HEATING ALONG WITH WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM SHOWERS THIS MORNING HAS LED TO CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WIND FLOW IS WEAK...SO STORMS ARE
SLOW MOVING AND BRINGING HEAVY RAINS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
SCATTERED THROUGH THE EVENING. SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE TN VLY WILL
BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING AS WELL. ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES AND WE LOSE
HEATING...STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED IN THE WEST AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVWE OVER MO/AR
ARRIVES. CLOUDINESS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOWS TONIGHT
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AND WENT CLOSE TO MAV OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT AND DECENT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES WEDNESDAY...AND DYNAMICS
SUSTAIN A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE
WEST...PASSING EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT BY AFTERNOON. BOTH 12Z
NAM/GFS AGREES ON THIS AND ON THE MOVEMENT. HAVE GONE CATEGORICAL
POPS IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY...LIKELY EAST. MODELS ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND THIS IS THE SOLUTION I CHOSE...WHICH SHOULD SEE A
DIMINISHING TREND FROM WEST-EAST LATE WED AFTERNOON THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE RAIN IS MUCH NEEDED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN 2/3 OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY LOOKS DRIER AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN. FRONT WILL STALL
OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF US...FAR ENOUGH WAY TO KEEP PRECIP OUT. 5H
TROUGH DEEPENS THU-FRI WITH ANOTHER FRONT/SHORTWAVE ARRIVING. PRECIP
WITH THIS IS MARGINAL...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE NWRN 1/3 OF THE CWA
WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE 00Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER AMONG THE OTHER MODELS...IN RESPECT TO
STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SAT MORNING...THEN DISSIPATES. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES
BY SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z
ECMWF WERE PRESSING IT FURTHER SOUTH WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
OVER THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE 06Z GFS/00Z UKMET AND 12Z/09 ECMWF
ENSEMBLE ARE NOT AS AGRESSIVE. THIS WILL KEEP THE FRONT STALLED A
LITTLE NORTH OF US. THIS IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...BUT FRONTS SO FAR THIS SUMMER HAVE NOT BEEN STALLING AS
FAR NORTH AS NORMAL. FOR SENSIBILE WX...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT WHAT
YOU WOULD EXPECT IN MID JULY...WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAXED IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILTIES WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH 21Z. THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THE STORMS WILL DISSIPATES THIS EVENING.

A SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REACH BLF AND LWB AROUND 12Z
WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. CONVECTION AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL INCREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A PRE-
FRONTAL BAND MOVES TO THE EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BEHIND THE
FRONT EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
356 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-WVZ042>045-110800-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-
GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
356 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ004>006-VAZ043>047-058-059-110800-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-
BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
356 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR A FEW HOURS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1234 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

VAZ035-101700-
AMHERST VA-
1234 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

THROUGH 1230 PM EDT...HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORKS
OF BUFFALO...OR ABOUT 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOWESVILLE. THE STORM WAS
MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES BY 1:30 PM WITH THIS
STORM.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

AMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1251 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

VAZ032-101745-
PATRICK VA-
1251 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

THROUGH 1247 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN 6 MILES EAST OF STUART...OR
ABOUT 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF CRITZ. THIS STORM ALSO LIKELY CONTAINS
PEA SIZE HAIL AND LIGHTNING.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES BY 2 PM.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

PH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1256 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

VAZ046-047-101800-
APPOMATTOX VA-BUCKINGHAM VA-
1256 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

AT 1255 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF DILLWYN...OR ABOUT 7
MILES SOUTHWEST OF CENTENARY...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...TOGA AT 115 PM EDT...CENTENARY AT 155 PM
EDT.

THIS STORM WILL LIKELY BRING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES
BY 2 PM AS WELL AS PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND
LIGHTNING.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

PH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
301 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

VAZ012-016-102000-
WYTHE VA-CARROLL VA-
301 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

AT 258 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ALLISONIA...OR ABOUT 2 MILES
NORTHWEST OF PATTERSON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...SYLVATUS AT 310 PM EDT...DUGSPUR AT 350
PM EDT.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES BY 4 PM...AS WELL AS
SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

PH