Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Blacksburg, VA

000 
WWUS51 KRNK 101731
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
131 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

VAC029-101815-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0192.000000T0000Z-070710T1815Z/
BUCKINGHAM VA-
131 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN BUCKINGHAM COUNTY...

AT 129 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WINGINA...OR ABOUT NEAR BENT 
CREEK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO TOGA...
BUCKINGHAM...GOLD HILL AND CENTENARY.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LARGE HAIL AND...OR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
IN ADDITION...TORRENTIAL RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. TURN AROUND DONT DROWN

LAT...LON 3760 7884 3747 7861 3763 7834 3775 7855

$$

PH

000 
WWUS51 KRNK 101811
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
210 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

VAC029-101820-
/O.EXP.KRNK.SV.W.0192.000000T0000Z-070710T1815Z/
BUCKINGHAM VA-
210 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR BUCKINGHAM COUNTY EXPIRES AT 
215 PM EDT...

REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR STORM RELATED DAMAGE TO LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS AND ASK THEM TO IMMEDIATELY RELAY THE REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BLACKSBURG.

LAT...LON 3760 7884 3747 7861 3763 7834 3775 7855

$$

PH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1219 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION
WEDNESDAY BEFORE PASSING ACROSS AND EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
COUNTY WARNING AREA IS IN VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND AREA FROM
BUCKINGHAM COUNTY TO WILKES COUNTY IS GETTING LOTS OF SUNSHINE.
THIS IS RESULTING IN LIFTED INDEX VALUES AOB -4 AND MUCAPES ABOVE
3000 J/KG.

HAVE LEFT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S IN THE SOUTHEAST BUT
HAVE CUT BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS AREA
GRADUALLY BREAKING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WITH SHORTWAVE
LIFTING INTO WEST VIRGINIA...STILL EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEXT DIGGING S/W TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STILL LOOKING
RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR JULY AS WELL AS BIT FASTER PER LATEST MODEL
SUITES. ALTHO TIMING ISSUES EXIST AS TO HOW FAST PRE-FRONTAL BAND
WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS WED OR WED EVENING...STRONG MID-LEVEL
BACKING...LOTS OF MOISTURE AND APPROACH OF SECONDARY MID LEVEL
VORT FROM THE WEST SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR RATHER WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INTO WED NIGHT. HOWEVER BEST TREND LIKELY TO
GO WITH SLOWER NAM TYPE SCENARIO WHICH WOULD HAVE LINE FEATURE
WEAKENING ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE WED...AND THEN JUMPING INTO THE
EASTERN LEE TROF WED EVENING BEFORE EXITING EARLY THU. ALSO
FORECAST WEAK WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY TEND TO SLOW THINGS UP
SOME UNLESS MORE ORGANIZED FEATURE ACCELERATES WELL AHEAD OF THE
ACTUAL FRONT. OTRW ENOUGH MOISTURE AND OLD BOUNDARIES AROUND TO GO
WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE WED AFTERNOON WELL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND LIKELY POPS WESTERN THIRD LATE FOR PRE-FRONTAL BAND.
GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG PUNCH OF SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BY EARLY THU WITH
MOST SHRA EAST OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY IF NOT SOONER. THUS CUT BACK
COVEAGE THU TO MAINLY THE EXTREME SE AND CUT CLOUDS SOME AS DEEPER
W/NW POST FRONTAL FLOW DEVELOPS. LOWERED HIGHS A LITTLE ESPCLY
WEST WED GIVEN CLOUDS/SHRA WITH ANY RESIDUAL LOW 90S CONFINED TO
THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS MAINLY 80S ON THU BUT MORE TOLERABLE AS
DEWPOINTS SLOWLY FALL OFF FROM NW TO SE THRU THE AFTERNOON.
ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF VERIFY THAT OP GFS IS OVERDONE WITH STRENGTH
OF SHRTWV AND BOUNDARY WHICH KICKS UP A LINE OF PRECIP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. NOT THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH LEFT OF THIS LIFT
ONCE IT CROSSES THE RIDGES.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE 00Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER AMONG THE OTHER MODELS...IN RESPECT TO
STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SAT MORNING...THEN DISSIPATES. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES
BY SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z
ECMWF WERE PRESSING IT FURTHER SOUTH WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
OVER THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE 06Z GFS/00Z UKMET AND 12Z/09 ECMWF
ENSEMBLE ARE NOT AS AGRESSIVE. THIS WILL KEEP THE FRONT STALLED A
LITTLE NORTH OF US. THIS IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...BUT FRONTS SO FAR THIS SUMMER HAVE NOT BEEN STALLING AS
FAR NORTH AS NORMAL. FOR SENSIBILE WX...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT WHAT
YOU WOULD EXPECT IN MID JULY...WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAXED IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESIDUAL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS/ISOLD SHRA FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER
NW NC AND SW VA WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP VSBYS MAINLY IN THE HIGH END MVFR TO VFR
EARLY THIS MORNING. BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE AT LWB BUT DUE TO
METAR/COMMS PROBLEMS WILL KEEP A NIL TAF GOING THERE UNTIL
CURRENT CONDITIONS BECOME AVAILABLE.

VFR HAZE WILL ALSO BE PREVELENT IN MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH MID-
DAY. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE AS COMPARED TO
MONDAY...INCLUDING POINTS FARTHER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT
WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
REGION OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE FROM ROUGHLY FLOYD VA TO BOONE NC. THUS WILL INCLUDE A VCTS
MENTION AT MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND ADD PREVAILING MVFR IN
SHRA AT BLF WHERE RAIN MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD.

COVERAGE SHOULD WANE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS WHAT
TOOK PLACE MONDAY NIGHT. APPEARS AGAIN SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND LATE
ESPCLY WHERE EARLIER RAINFALL OCCURRED. NEXT ROUND OF SHRA LIKELY
TO APPROACH THE SE WVA SITES TOWARD 12Z WED WITH CIGS LOWERING TO
MVFR...OTRW KEEPING TAFS DRY LATE TONIGHT FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAYS AND THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL INCREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS PRE-FRONTAL
BAND MOVES TO THE EAST COAST.

DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEW FIRE IN THE CWA RESULTING FROM A LIGHTNING STRIKE...LOCATED
IN THE JAMES RIVER WILDERNESS AREA NEAR NATURAL BRIDGE. RH DROPPED
INTO THE UPPER 30 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FIRE TO
SPREAD. SIMILAR RH READINGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
ANTICIPATE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE THREAT OF A
WETTING SHOWER. A MUCH GREATER THREAT OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY. MAIN CONCERN TO FIRE MANAGERS
WILL BE VERY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND THE THREAT OF NEW
FIRE STARTS AS THE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL INCREASES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...DS/JH/RCS
FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
356 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-WVZ042>045-110800-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-
GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
356 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ004>006-VAZ043>047-058-059-110800-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-
BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
356 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR A FEW HOURS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1234 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

VAZ035-101700-
AMHERST VA-
1234 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

THROUGH 1230 PM EDT...HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORKS
OF BUFFALO...OR ABOUT 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOWESVILLE. THE STORM WAS
MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES BY 1:30 PM WITH THIS
STORM.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

AMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1251 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

VAZ032-101745-
PATRICK VA-
1251 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

THROUGH 1247 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN 6 MILES EAST OF STUART...OR
ABOUT 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF CRITZ. THIS STORM ALSO LIKELY CONTAINS
PEA SIZE HAIL AND LIGHTNING.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES BY 2 PM.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

PH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1256 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

VAZ046-047-101800-
APPOMATTOX VA-BUCKINGHAM VA-
1256 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

AT 1255 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF DILLWYN...OR ABOUT 7
MILES SOUTHWEST OF CENTENARY...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...TOGA AT 115 PM EDT...CENTENARY AT 155 PM
EDT.

THIS STORM WILL LIKELY BRING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES
BY 2 PM AS WELL AS PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND
LIGHTNING.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

PH