Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
724 AM EDT MON APR 16 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY AND COOL TODAY WHILE REGION SITS ON FAR BACK SIDE OF
NOREASTER. SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHERN WV MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER LOW ARRIVES WITH
SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STRONG VORTICITY LOBE WILL BE GOING THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER...MODELS PREVIOUSLY OVERESTIMATED AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...AS EVIDENT BY THE ABSENCE OF CLOUDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THOUGH THE SNOW STOPPED OVERNIGHT...I
STILL EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WV MOUNTAINS. ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LIMITED TO 1 TO 4 INCHES GENERALLY ABOVE 2500 FEET TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. THUS...THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN WV
MOUNTAINS IS CANCELLED.

NOREASTER WILL SIT OVER LONG ISLAND TODAY...WHILE WE FEEL THE
INDIRECT EFFECTS. FOR ONE...GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
ALSO...VORT LOBES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW TO PRODUCE SNOW
SHOWERS IN NORTHERN WV MOUNTAINS. SKY GRIDS HAD TO BE GREATLY
LOWERED...ESPECIALLY LOWLANDS...BASED ON REALITY OF CLEARING
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH I STILL EXPECT A CUMULUS FIELD TO POP UP WITH
OUTER RIM OF COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT. FORECAST ADJUSTED TO CONFINE
MENTIONABLE POPS ONLY TO THE MOUNTAINS...AND WERE TIMED BASED ON THE
WAVE THIS MORNING...AND THE LESSER ONE ARRIVING THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED UP SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWLANDS BECAUSE OF A BIT MORE SUNSHINE
TODAY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT. IN GENERAL...THE
BETTER WEATHER FOR LATER IN THE WEEK IS LOOKING MORE UNLIKELY.
ALTHOUGH THE NEW WRF-NAM IS TYPICALLY TOO CRAZY WITH SPINNING UP
CLOSED H5 LOWS NEAR THE END OF ITS RUN...TEND TO LEND MORE CREDENCE
TOWARDS IT THAN NORMAL WITH THE GFS ALSO CLOSING AN H5
LOW...WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH OVER WEST VIRGINIA LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME HAS TWO H5 LOWS ALMOST PINCHING OFF THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
AN UPPER RIDGE...WITH A CLOSED CENTER OVER JAMES BAY...LOOKING
SOMETHING LIKE AN OMEGA BLOCK. THIS WEEKENDS NOREASTER IS FAR OFF
THE EAST COAST BY THEN...HOWEVER...MEAGER DISTURBANCES DROPPING DOWN
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFY TAKING SUCH A SOUTHERN
TRAJECTORY. IN SIMPLER TERMS...WHAT BEGINS AS A WEAK LOW THROWING
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP INTO MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES PERHAPS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...TRIES TO PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN SYSTEM PERHAPS CLOSING OFF
AND COALESCING BY THURSDAY IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. DID INC POPS
WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH DIURNAL RAIN SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS...FALLING APART DURING THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO...CONSIDERING THE
ABOVE...FELT COMFORTABLE TAKING A FEW DEGREES OFF MEX MAX TEMPS FOR
THURSDAY. SUCH A BLOCKY PATTERN SEEMS UNLIKELY TO BREAK DOWN QUICK
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MORE SPRINGLIKE TEMPS BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WE
WILL SEE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT TO SEE THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKDOWN OR SHIFT EASTWARD
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS
PATTERN EVOLUTION WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN DEPICTED BY HPC.

ON THURSDAY...LAST IN THE SERIES OF CLOSED LOW FEATURES THAT WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION...LEAVING
SOME UPSLOPE PCPN IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS THE FLOW CONTINUES
OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND AND
ALSO DAMPEN TEMPERATURES A BIT SO HAVE GONE A TOUCH COOLER THAN THE
MEX ON THURSDAY.  THE CLOUDS LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLEARING
ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.  THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS...BUT WITH THE SUN FINALLY
APPEARING...SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BUMP IN DAY TIME HIGHS.

THE FLOW FINALLY BEGINS TO TURN SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE 70S.  WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOWEVER FOR A WEAK WARM FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  THE REGION
SHOULD BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE WARM FRONT...AS THE MOISTURE
AXIS SHOULD HEAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE REGION TO REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A
POTENTIAL RIDGE RUNNER COMPLEX SATURDAY NIGHT.  BUT FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AS THE REGION SHOULD STILL BE DRY WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE RETURN WEST OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

OUR REGION WILL FEEL THE INDIRECT EFFECTS OF A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS SITTING ON LONG ISLAND. A STRONG VORT LOBE IS
ROTATING THROUGH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE FAR BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM THIS MORNING. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE REDEVELOPING AT
KEKN FOR MVFR CIGS AND VIS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING /POSSIBLE
BRIEF IFR/...BUT KBKW SHOULD ONLY SEE MVFR CIGS WITHOUT THE SNOW
SHOWERS. ALL OTHER SITES MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS
NEARLY 25KTS. A FINAL VORT LOBE THIS EVENING COULD AGAIN DEGRADE
CONDITIONS AT KEKN.

NO SIG WX TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. CHANCE OF IFR CIGS /MAINLY MOUNTAINS/
LATE WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NEXT SYSTEM. NO SIG WX
THURSDAY-FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...MDP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
456 AM EDT MON APR 16 2007

WVZ024-170900-
MINGO-
456 AM EDT MON APR 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATER
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

RIVER FLOOD WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

WVZ014-015-170900-
PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
456 AM EDT MON APR 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATER
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

RIVER FLOOD WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

WVZ029-030-039-040-046-047-170900-
GILMER-LEWIS-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
456 AM EDT MON APR 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ER/RLX

FLOOD ADVISORY
RIVER FLOOD WARNING

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

WVZ013-170900-
LINCOLN-
456 AM EDT MON APR 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATER
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.