Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
800 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA WILL BE IN A STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE
OF A MAJOR LOW DEEPENING ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH MONDAY.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL TURN INTO ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS
SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH.  A SMALLER LOW MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CARRYING CATEGORICAL POPS WITH RAIN SHOWERS TURNING INTO SNOW
TONIGHT AS COLD AIR MASS DROPS TEMPERATURES AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. BULK OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT.
BUT MODELS INSIST BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA.

GOING WITH 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 3KFT OF
POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
SHOWING UP TO 6 INCHES THROUGH MON 12Z THERE.

FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTH AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA
AND WESTERN SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS TO INCLUDE GUYANDOTTE
RIVER...TUG FORK AT WILLIAMSON AND KERMIT...COAL RIVER AT
TORNADO...AND TYGART VALLEY AT BELINGTON. THESE CONDITIONS RESULTED
AFTER THE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL FROM 2.5 TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH...CENTRAL SECTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA INCLUDING SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES...AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS NEAR
BKW.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CAUSE POP UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. 850MB TEMPS GETTING INTO THE MINUS 7 MARK SUGGESTING RAIN
TURNING INTO SNOW THROUGH MON MORNING. MINOR TWEAKS IN TONIGHT
TEMPERATURES MAINLY LOWERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INTENSE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE UPSLOPE SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS.  SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN THE LOWLANDS
AND MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS THE FAVORED MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE REGIONS
BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE STRONG WITH MAJOR SYSTEM ALONG E
COAST...AND DEPTH OF MOISTURE...UP THROUGH H7...WILL COUNTERACT
MARGINAL H85 TEMPERATURES FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THIS UPSLOPE
SITUATION.  THEREFORE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 INCHES FOR
SNOWSHOE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SEEM REASONABLE...WITH AMOUNTS
LOWERING TO APPROXIMATELY 2 INCHES DOWN AROUND 2KFT.

SNOW ADVISORY IS WARRANTED FOR THE FOUR NORTHERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES
ALTHOUGH WILL STRESS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST....ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY...ALL BUT ENDING UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION.

UPPER LOW COMING DOWN E SIDE OF DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK TRAVERSES
AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.  THIS BEGINS TO MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH N FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED
IN ITS WAKE.

ON TEMPERATURES..WENT CLOSE TO WELL CONVERGED NUMBERS IN HTS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUNSHINE...BUT WITH A BLEND TO THE LOW SIDE OF
THE MORE WIDELY DIVERGED NUMBERS FARTHER E WITH CLOUDS AND UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION FOR HIGHS MONDAY.  WENT NEAR OR JUST UNDER THE WELL
CONVERGED NUMBERS FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGH.  USED A SIMILAR STRATEGY ON
HIGHS TUESDAY AS FOR MONDAY.  LOWERED LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE
NEW NUMBERS E AS THE CLOUDS MIGHT ACTUALLY BREAK.  LOWERED HIGHS
WEDNESDAY TOWARD THE NEW NUMBERS WITH CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION
FROM AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH.  ALSO LOWERED LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TOWARD NEW MEX...BASICALLY A SLOWING OF THE
MODERATING TREND THAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY ENSUE..

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT TO SEE THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKDOWN OR SHIFT EASTWARD
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS
PATTERN EVOLUTION WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN DEPICTED BY HPC.

ON THURSDAY...LAST IN THE SERIES OF CLOSED LOW FEATURES THAT WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION...LEAVING
SOME UPSLOPE PCPN IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS THE FLOW CONTINUES
OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND AND
ALSO DAMPEN TEMPERATURES A BIT SO HAVE GONE A TOUCH COOLER THAN THE
MEX ON THURSDAY.  THE CLOUDS LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLEARING
ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.  THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS...BUT WITH THE SUN FINALLY
APPEARING...SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BUMP IN DAY TIME HIGHS.

THE FLOW FINALLY BEGINS TO TURN SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE 70S.  WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOWEVER FOR A WEAK WARM FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  THE REGION
SHOULD BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE WARM FRONT...AS THE MOISTURE
AXIS SHOULD HEAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE REGION TO REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A
POTENTIAL RIDGE RUNNER COMPLEX SATURDAY NIGHT.  BUT FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AS THE REGION SHOULD STILL BE DRY WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE RETURN WEST OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPSLOPE STARTING OVER THE REGION AS WINDS ARE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WV MOUNTAINS...WHILE
A VFR STRATUS DECK REMAINS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS.
EXPECT STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NO SIG WX TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM SOUTHWEST WV COAL FIELDS THROUGH
CHARLESTON AND POINTS NORTHEASTWARD RESULTED IN 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SEVERAL OF THE
AFFECTED ZONES. PROBLEMS FOR NOW HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO CREEKS/SMALLER
STREAMS BUT FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SLOWER RESPONDING MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL BE FURTHER EVALUATED THIS MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ037-038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...MDP/ARJ
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...RPY
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
515 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

KYZ101>103-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ006>011-016>020-029-031-032-
162115-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-
MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-
TYLER-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-GILMER-HARRISON-TAYLOR-
515 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR KENTUCKY...OHIO...SOUTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ105-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-013>015-024>028-030-033>036-039-040-162115-
LAWRENCE KY-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-MINGO-
LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-LEWIS-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
UPSHUR-BARBOUR-
515 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A SMALL PORTION OF
NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR STREAMS AND OTHER
MINOR COUNTY FLOODING CONTINUE. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN IS OVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS WILL MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY. ALL RIVERS
SHOULD HAVE CRESTED BY NOON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WVZ037-038-046-047-162115-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
515 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR STREAMS AND OTHER
MINOR COUNTY FLOODING CONTINUE. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN IS OVER.

UPSLOPE SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEST VIRGINIA
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND
MONDAY FOR 2 TO 6 INCHES OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS WILL MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY. ALL RIVERS
SHOULD HAVE CRESTED BY NOON MONDAY.

UPSLOPE SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. A SNOW ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH MONDAY FOR 2 TO 6 INCHES OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
402 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     FLOOD            MADISON                 38.06N 81.80W
04/15/2007                   BOONE              WV   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL HOMES EVACUATED ON LINCOLN AVENUE AND IN
            DANVILLE.

&&

KMATTAROCHIA