Severe Thunderstorm Warning 303, NWS Raleigh, NC

000 
WWUS52 KRAH 150033
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
830 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

NCC085-150100-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0303.000000T0000Z-070915T0100Z/
HARNETT NC-
830 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN HARNETT COUNTY...

AT 830 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES 
NORTHEAST OF BUIES CREEK... OR ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ANGIER... 
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. 

DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM... ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY 
RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR... AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. 

COATS AND RURAL NORTHEAST HARNETT COUNTY ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS 
STORM. 

LAT...LON 3551 7872 3544 7863 3533 7856 3527 7874
      3525 7898 3556 7892
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 299DEG 9KT 3543 7872

$$

BADGETT

000 
WWUS52 KRAH 150100
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
900 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

NCC085-150110-
/O.EXP.KRAH.SV.W.0303.000000T0000Z-070915T0100Z/
HARNETT NC-
900 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN HARNETT COUNTY EXPIRED
AT 900 PM EDT...

LAT...LON 3551 7872 3544 7863 3533 7856 3527 7874
      3525 7898 3556 7892
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 299DEG 9KT 3543 7871

$$

GIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
400 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AIR MASS COUPLED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING WILL CAUSE
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL USHER COOLER DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BLOSSOM IN THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR
MASS OVER THE REGION. AS THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION (REMNANTS OF
HUMBERTO) APPROACH AND CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING...EXPECT
SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE WITH POCKETS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE NW PIEDMONT
WHICH HAS SEEN MOST OF THE RAIN SO FAR WITH THIS EVENT. WEAK SHEAR
STILL NOTED ON VAD WIND PROFILES AND WIND FIELD EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING (FROM 15KTS TO ABOUT 25KTS) AS 850-700MB
CYCLONE SLOWLY DEEPENS OVER OUR VICINITY. HOWEVER BY THE TIME THIS
DEEPENING OCCURS...MODELS INDICATE THAT WIND FIELD WILL BE FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL. THUS APPEARS THAT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LIMITED AND
MAINLY CONFINED BETWEEN NOW AND SUNSET.

MOST AIR MASS COUPLED WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUPPLIED BY 250MB JET CROSSING THE
EASTERN LAKES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
LIFT TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS/T-STORMS. THUS WILL MAINTAIN
FORECAST FOR LOW END CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING TROUGH CROSSING REGION AROUND 6Z.
THUS....EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH W-E BETWEEN 06-12Z SAT.

DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING SURFACE-850MB NW FLOW WILL HELP TO DIMINISH
CLOUD COVERAGE W-E ON SATURDAY. 850MB PROGS DEPICT DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT DOWNSLOPE SHOULD
OFFSET INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS/TEMP SCHEME
NOT DESIGNED FOR CAA EVENT. THUS WENT WITH MAX NUMBERS CLOSE TO
MOS.

(DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER IN PROGRESS....GRIDS AND FORECAST WILL BE
LATE. PRODUCTS SHOULD BE OUT NLT 430 PM EDT).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SAT NIGHT THUS EXPECT SOME
MIXING. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT. ALSO RH CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE SAT NIGHT. THUS
WENT WITH MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY...EXPECT DRY
AND PLEASANTLY COOL CONDITIONS. THICKNESSES WITH FULL SUN SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S. WITH SURFACE RIDGE OVER REGION.
EXPECT GOOD CONDITIONS TO REALIZE FULL COOLING POTENTIAL. EXPECT
LOWS MON MORNING NEAR 50 TO NEAR 55 SE.

CONTINUED DRY AND PLEASANT FOR MON AND MONDAY NIGHT. AIR MASS
MODIFIES A BIT SO EXPECT TEMPS MON ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL DEPICT A WEAK ELY WAVE MOVING TOWARD/INTO
THE SE U.S. THIS PERIOD. PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE IN THE LEE OF
THE APPALACHIANS COUPLED WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT
IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF CENTRAL NC INDICATE THAT INFLUENCE OF ELY WAVE
MAY BE FELT MORE TO OUR SOUTH. GFS APPEARS TOO WET AND MAY BE TOO
QUICK TO DISMISS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN OUR VICINITY. THE 00Z RUN OF
THE CANADIAN GIVES SOME SUPPORT TO THE GFS BUT PRODUCES JUST
MINUSCULE AMOUNTS OF RAIN (GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH THROUGH THE
PERIOD). THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE HIGHEST RAIN THREAT IN VICINITY OF
THE COAST WED-FRI AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.

FOR CENTRAL NC...KEPT POPS MAINLY BELOW 20% THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE SANDHILLS WHERE A 20% POP WAS
MAINTAINED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION THU AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON FRI. PLENTY OF TIME TO RAMP UP POPS IF ELY WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE APPEARS AS ROBUST AS GFS INDICATES. DUE TO DEPTH
OF ELY FLOW...POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS TO OCCUR
ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MID SEPTEMBER...TYPICAL FOR A LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROAD WAA COMBINED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL SUPPORT  SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH TO LIFT SE TO NW AS A WARM FRONT...ALLOWING
SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT FROM OUT OF THE SSW. AS THE WARM SECTOR
SPREADS NW INTO THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR
CEILINGS FROM 3.5KFT TO 5KFT FROM 21Z TO 06Z WITH SHOWERS BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD AS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS APPROACH
FROM THE NW. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE IMPROVING CEILINGS COULD BE
AT INT AND GSO...WHERE LATER WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BE TOO CLOSE TO
THE NOCTURNAL STABILIZING BL. THUS INT AND GSO COULD HOLD AT MVFR TO
IFR THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE
BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE NW. NSW EXPECTED
AFTER 14Z AS DRY AND STABLE AIR FILTERS INTO CENTRAL NC

A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
DOWN THE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...CBL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
511 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-151000-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
511 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH ACROSS
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH 8 PM. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER 8 PM. THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...BRIEF
INSTANCES OF FUNNEL CLOUDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS THIS EVENING.

WSS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
738 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

NCZ040-074>076-083>086-150115-
ANSON-CHATHAM-HOKE-LEE-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-
738 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

...STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
RICHMOND...LEE...MOORE...MONTGOMERY...ANSON...HOKE AND
SCOTLAND COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM EDT...

AT 738 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BROADWAY TO 5 MILES WEST OF PEACHLAND...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 12 MILES EAST OF SANFORD TO 11 MILES EAST OF MONROE...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR AROUND SOUTHERN
PINES...WADESBORO...ANSONVILLE...AND ELLERBE.

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

WSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
740 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FUQUAY-VARINA           35.59N 78.79W
09/14/2007                   WAKE               NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A SPOTTER REPORTED A DOWNED TREE AND LIMBS...SUSPENDED ON
            POWERLINES ON ACADEMY STREET.

&&

BSMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
747 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FUQUAY-VARINA           35.59N 78.79W
09/14/2007                   WAKE               NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            POWER LINES AND SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON AINGER ROAD AS WELL
            AS RALEIGH STREET IN FUQUAY-VARINA.

&&

ORROCK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
749 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FUQUAY-VARINA           35.59N 78.79W
09/14/2007                   WAKE               NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A TREE DOWN ACROSS VANCE
            STREET IN FUQUAY VARINA.

&&

BSMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
754 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ANGIER                  35.51N 78.74W
09/14/2007                   HARNETT            NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES AND A FEW POWER LINES DOWN IN TOWN.

&&

ORROCK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
757 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FUQUAY-VARINA           35.59N 78.79W
09/14/2007                   WAKE               NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES DOWN ON A NURSING HOME ON SUNSET LAKE ROAD IN
            FUQUAY VARINA. FIRE DEPT. DISPATCHED TO REMOVE.

&&

BSMITH