Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Raleigh, NC

000 
WGUS72 KRAH 150201
FFSRAH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

NCC085-150400-
HARNETT NC-
1000 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FOR
HARNETT COUNTY...

AT 1000 PM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS 
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN EXTENDING WEST TO EAST ACROSS HARNETT COUNTY... 
FROM PINEVIEW AND OLIVIA EAST TO ERWIN AND DUNN... MOVING EAST AT 25 
MPH. RADAR INDICATED THAT THERE HAD BEEN LOCALLY 3 TO 4 INCHES OF 
RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN HARNETT COUNTY... WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN SECTIONS. AN ADDITION 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE 
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1000 PM AND 1100 PM... WHICH MAY CREATE FLASH 
FLOODING. 

FLOOD WATERS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE NIGHT. IF YOU SEE WATER 
FLOWING ACROSS A STREET OR ROAD... TURN AROUND. 

LAT...LON 3557 7892 3550 7869 3539 7860 3534 7874
      3526 7920 3540 7908
TIME...MOT...LOC 0156Z 180DEG 0KT 3556 7888

$$

BADGETT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
849 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AIR MASS COUPLED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING WILL CAUSE
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL USHER COOLER DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING CENTRAL NC AT THIS
TIME WITH MOST INTENSE SHOWERS/STORMS OCCURRING ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH FROM WADESBORO TO SOUTH OF RALEIGH TO ROANOKE RAPIDS.
FAVORED AREA FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH 2 AM WILL BE OVER THE
EAST AND SOUTH SECTIONS OF CENTRAL NC AS A SURFACE LOW OVER
UPSTATE SC AT 00Z LIFTS ENE. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE SEVERE/TORNADIC
STORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING BUT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE
SANDHILLS.

FORECAST TREND OF CONVECTION ENDING W-E ACROSS CENTRAL AFTER 04Z-
06Z IN THE WEST AND BETWEEN 8-11Z IN THE EAST STILL APPEARS TO BE
ON TARGET. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMP TREND TO REFLECT REALITY BUT STILL
EXPECT MINS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DOWNSLOPE FLOW SATURDAY WILL HELP TO DISSIPATE CLOUD COVERAGE NW-
SE DURING THE DAY SAT. DECENT 850MB CAA EXPECTED SATURDAY BUT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD OFFSET INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR.

COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SAT NIGHT THUS EXPECT SOME
MIXING. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT. ALSO RH CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE SAT NIGHT. THUS
WENT WITH MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY...EXPECT DRY
AND PLEASANTLY COOL CONDITIONS. THICKNESSES WITH FULL SUN SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S. WITH SURFACE RIDGE OVER REGION.
EXPECT GOOD CONDITIONS TO REALIZE FULL COOLING POTENTIAL. EXPECT
LOWS MON MORNING NEAR 50 TO NEAR 55 SE.

CONTINUED DRY AND PLEASANT FOR MON AND MONDAY NIGHT. AIR MASS
MODIFIES A BIT SO EXPECT TEMPS MON ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL DEPICT A WEAK ELY WAVE MOVING TOWARD/INTO
THE SE U.S. THIS PERIOD. PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE IN THE LEE OF
THE APPALACHIANS COUPLED WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT
IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF CENTRAL NC INDICATE THAT INFLUENCE OF ELY WAVE
MAY BE FELT MORE TO OUR SOUTH. GFS APPEARS TOO WET AND MAY BE TOO
QUICK TO DISMISS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN OUR VICINITY. THE 00Z RUN OF
THE CANADIAN GIVES SOME SUPPORT TO THE GFS BUT PRODUCES JUST
MINUSCULE AMOUNTS OF RAIN (GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH THROUGH THE
PERIOD). THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE HIGHEST RAIN THREAT IN VICINITY OF
THE COAST WED-FRI AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.

FOR CENTRAL NC...KEPT POPS MAINLY BELOW 20% THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE SANDHILLS WHERE A 20% POP WAS
MAINTAINED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION THU AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON FRI. PLENTY OF TIME TO RAMP UP POPS IF ELY WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE APPEARS AS ROBUST AS GFS INDICATES. DUE TO DEPTH
OF ELY FLOW...POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS TO OCCUR
ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MID SEPTEMBER...TYPICAL FOR A LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD WAA COMBINED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL SUPPORT  SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH TO LIFT SE TO NW AS A WARM FRONT...ALLOWING
SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT FROM OUT OF THE SSW. AS THE WARM SECTOR
SPREADS NW INTO THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR
CEILINGS FROM 3.5KFT TO 5KFT FROM 21Z TO 06Z WITH SHOWERS BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD AS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS APPROACH
FROM THE NW. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE IMPROVING CEILINGS COULD BE
AT INT AND GSO...WHERE LATER WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BE TOO CLOSE TO
THE NOCTURNAL STABILIZING BL. THUS INT AND GSO COULD HOLD AT MVFR TO
IFR THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE
BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE NW. NSW EXPECTED
AFTER 14Z AS DRY AND STABLE AIR FILTERS INTO CENTRAL NC

A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
DOWN THE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
511 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-151000-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
511 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH ACROSS
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH 8 PM. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER 8 PM. THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...BRIEF
INSTANCES OF FUNNEL CLOUDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS THIS EVENING.

WSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
747 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FUQUAY-VARINA           35.59N 78.79W
09/14/2007                   WAKE               NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            POWER LINES AND SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON AINGER ROAD AS WELL
            AS RALEIGH STREET IN FUQUAY-VARINA.

&&

ORROCK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
749 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FUQUAY-VARINA           35.59N 78.79W
09/14/2007                   WAKE               NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A TREE DOWN ACROSS VANCE
            STREET IN FUQUAY VARINA.

&&

BSMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
754 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ANGIER                  35.51N 78.74W
09/14/2007                   HARNETT            NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES AND A FEW POWER LINES DOWN IN TOWN.

&&

ORROCK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
757 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FUQUAY-VARINA           35.59N 78.79W
09/14/2007                   WAKE               NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES DOWN ON A NURSING HOME ON SUNSET LAKE ROAD IN
            FUQUAY VARINA. FIRE DEPT. DISPATCHED TO REMOVE.

&&

BSMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
833 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

NCZ028-043-150145-
EDGECOMBE-WILSON-
833 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WILSON AND SOUTHERN
EDGECOMBE COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM EDT...

AT 833 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN WILSON COUNTY... LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF
LUCAMA... MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR LUCAMA AROUND 845 PM... BLACK
CREEK AROUND 855 PM... STANTONSBURG AROUND 910 PM... SARATOGA AROUND
915 PM.

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION... VERY HEAVY
RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE INCH DURING THE NEXT HOUR
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD DRIVE WITH CAUTION
TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

GIH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
854 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

NCZ078-150200-
WAYNE-
854 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WAYNE COUNTY THROUGH 1000 PM
EDT...

AT 854 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR KENLY TO PINE LEVEL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
20 MPH INTO WAYNE COUNTY.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR GOLDSBORO AROUND 935 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

JO