Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Pueblo, CO

000 
WWUS55 KPUB 172211
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
411 PM MDT SUN JUN 17 2007

COC109-172330-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0100.000000T0000Z-070617T2330Z/
SAGUACHE CO-
411 PM MDT SUN JUN 17 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM MDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL SAGUACHE COUNTY...

AT 408 PM MDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF 
PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. 
THIS STORM WAS CENTERED 10 MILES WEST OF MOFFAT...OR 38 MILES NORTH 
OF ALAMOSA...AND WAS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MOFFAT.
  CRESTONE.

IF POSSIBLE...WITHOUT RISKING YOUR SAFETY...PROTECT PROPERTY BEFORE
THE WEATHER HITS. GET IN A STURDY STRUCTURE AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR...OR A BASEMENT CAN OFFER THE BEST
PROTECTION.

LAT...LON 3805 10619 3794 10618 3790 10554 3823 10577

$$

000 
WWUS55 KPUB 172222
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
422 PM MDT SUN JUN 17 2007

COC109-172232-
/O.CAN.KPUB.SV.W.0100.000000T0000Z-070617T2330Z/
SAGUACHE CO-
422 PM MDT SUN JUN 17 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR EAST
CENTRAL SAGUACHE COUNTY...

HAZARDOUS LIGHTNING MAY STILL BE IN THE AREA.

LAT...LON 3805 10619 3794 10618 3790 10554 3823 10577

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
234 PM MDT SUN JUN 17 2007

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND MON)

CURRENTLY...STORMS FIRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
25 AS OF 20Z...WITH MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. OVER THE MOUNTAINS...RECYCLED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
YESTERDAYS STORMS APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO DRIVE CONVECTION...AS LOW
LEVELS HAVE DRIED OUT SLIGHTLY VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. OVER THE
PLAINS...LEE TROUGH ALONG I-25 SHOWING LITTLE INCLINATION TO MIX
EASTWARD...WITH VERY SLOW MIX-OUT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY WEST OF I-25. CAPES RUNNING IN THE 1K-2K J/KG RANGE OVER
MOST OF THE PLAINS...THOUGH HEALTHY CAP REMAINS IN PLACE WITH CINS
OF 100-200 J/KG NOTED. LAPS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAX TEMPS
NEED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S BEFORE CONVECTION INITIATES.

TONIGHT...TOUGH TO ARGUE WITH ISOLATED POPS AREAWIDE FOR THIS
EVENING...THOUGH NAM MAY BE OPTIMISTIC IN CARRYING PRECIP ALL THE
WAY EAST TO THE KANSAS BORDER LATE THIS EVENING. WOULD APPEAR BEST
CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE ALONG THE RATON MESA AND THE SOUTHERN
SANGRES...THOUGH EVEN HERE COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...LIKELY TOO LATE TO
FORCE ANY CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

MONDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER POST FRONTAL AIR-MASS IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS WEST OF THE SANGRES. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOOK FAIRLY LOW
AREAWIDE AS LOW AND MID LEVELS DRY OUT OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE
LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN ON THE PLAINS. STILL...NAM
DOES BREAK OUT SOME -TSRA ALONG THE SANGRES AND ACROSS THE NM BORDER
BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO CANT DISCOUNT CONVECTIVE CHANCES COMPLETELY.
WILL CONTINUE THE ISOLATED POPS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST...WITH
REMAINING FORECAST GRIDS LOOKING FINE FOR NOW.  --PETERSEN

.LONG TERM...
(TUE THROUGH SUN)

BUSY MONITORING FOR STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SO LITTLE TIME
FOR DISCUSSION. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SEASONAL DIURNAL
LOW PROBABILITY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL BE THE
MAIN IMPACT WEATHER NEXT WEEK. ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER CO WOULD
PROBABLY DEVELOP INTO A NOCTURNAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. METZE

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS AT KCOS AND KALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. MAIN IMPACT FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE. OVERALL...ANY STORMS
AT THE TAF SITES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...WITH ONLY VERY BRIEF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SFC FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO REACH KCOS
AROUND 08Z AND KPUB ABOUT 10Z...WITH NORTH WINDS BRIEFLY GUSTING TO
25 KNOTS AFTER FROPA.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

10/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
654 AM MDT SUN JUN 17 2007

COZ058>089-093>099-181300-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
654 AM MDT SUN JUN 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
TODAY. HOWEVER...DUE TO INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO 60 TO 70 MPH. HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

ANY THUNDERSTORM WHICH DEVELOPS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL ACT AS THE INITIATOR FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE AS THEY MOVE ON TO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WOULD BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

ON TUESDAY...THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOWER...BUT A
COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
LATE IN THE DAY. THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH ON
WEDNESDAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ONLY ISOLATED
THUINDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...GENERALKLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 2 PM OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.