Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
246 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

.DISCUSSION...
BIGGEST CHALLENGES FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE THE ALMOST DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. GREATEST PUSH OF DRY AIR OVERNIGHT WILL
BE ACROSS ILLINOIS...INDIANA ...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY...BUT THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF POPS THERE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY ON SATURDAY...BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR
CWA...WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD DEFLECT APPROACHING SYSTEMS
AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF OUR CWA. BY THE END OF
THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST CYCLE...MODELS ARE TRYING TO SUPPRESS THE
RIDGE SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INDICATE A SMATTERING OF
PRECIP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...BUT WILL FOLLOW
EVERYONE ELSES LEAD AND KEEP IT DRY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.  INCLUDED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSTMS AT KEVV AND KCGI FROM 19Z TO 23Z...AND WILL
AMEND KPAH IF AND WHEN TSTM ACTIVITY APPROACHES.  SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS...GUSTY AT TIMES...WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  ANY TSTM ACTIVITY LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE ISOLATED...SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS
OR TWEB ROUTES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     BALLARD-CALDWELL-CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-
     DAVIESS-FULTON-GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-
     LYON-MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION
     KY-WEBSTER.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     BOLLINGER-BUTLER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW
     MADRID-PERRY MO-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #603 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT FOR
     WAYNE...EDWARDS...WABASH...HAMILTON...AND WHITE COUNTIES. HEAT
     ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON
     -JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-
     UNION IL-WABASH-WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #603 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT FOR
     GIBSON...PIKE...POSEY...VANDERBURGH...WARRICK...AND SPENCER
     COUNTIES. HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

SHORT TERM...JAP
LONG TERM....JAP
AVIATION...RT

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
236 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUNT CARMEL            38.42N 87.77W
08/16/2007                   WABASH             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON HOUSES ON THE WEST END OF MT. CARMEL
            ILLINOIS. THERE ARE ALSO POWER OUTAGES.

&&

DLL