Severe Thunderstorm Warning 214, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
347 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST ARE HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL
TODAY...AND POPS NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A LITTLE MID-LEVEL SUPPORT HAS ALLOWED ELEVATED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE BUBBLING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
INTO THE KEVV AREA. HOWEVER...VERY LITTLE ECHO REMAINS AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES ARE
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WHERE THE MID CLOUD AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY ARE LINGERING.

FOR TODAY...TRIED TO MIMIC YESTERDAYS DEWPOINT TRENDS TO BETTER
HANDLE THE HEAT INDICES AND ADVISORY POTENTIAL TODAY. YESTERDAY
DEWPOINTS HELD UP BETTER THAN FORECAST...AND WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT...HEAT INDICES REACHED THE 105 TO 110 RANGE THROUGHOUT THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A BIT COOLER TODAY...BUT FEEL THAT
DEWPOINTS MAY POOL A BIT WITH WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING.
THEREFORE...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA NOON TO 8 PM TODAY. GUIDANCE HAS A NICE TIGHT GROUPING FOR
HIGHS TODAY...SO STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.

THE INCREASED DEWPOINTS YESTERDAY...ALLOWED FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. A LOOK AT 00Z GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS
FOR TODAY SHOW THAT THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY BE IN THE
WEST...ESPECIALLY IF SOME MID-LEVEL LIFT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
DECIDED TO SPREAD SLIGHTS BACK TO COVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND A PORTIONS OF WEST KENTUCKY FOR TODAY.

GENERALLY FAVORED THE LESS AGRESSIVE 00Z GFS OVER THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE NAM WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE 00Z UKMET SUPPORTS
THE GFS. WILL BRING IT INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL IT
OUT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING IT SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY. GIVEN YESTERDAYS TREND FOR BETTER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...WOULD ASSUME THAT AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT INTO/THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...SO INCREASED
POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA JUST A BIT TO LOW CHANCE LEVELS. ALSO
FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY LEFT OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING...TO WARRANT INSERTING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSRA/SHRA THERE.

ON SATURDAY THE 00Z GFS AND UKMET...AS WELL AS THE 03Z SREF BEGIN
TO MOVE/REDEVELOP THE FRONT BACK NORTH AND EAST...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF MORE CONVECTION TO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA. HAVE ALSO INSERTED A 20 POP OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST
ZONES SATURDAY.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...GENERALLY UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH
THE 00Z MEX DATA...TRENDING TOWARD A WETTER LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...AS TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

AS FOR SHORT TERM TEMPRATURES...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...DID TEND TO TREND TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
AS THE DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION IS SUPPRESSED
A BIT BY A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE NERN CONUS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SWD THRU THE FOUR STATE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THIS
EVE...THOUGH THEY SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHOW A NRLY COMPONENT. HOT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC OF A SHWR OR TSTM OCCURRING AT ANY ONE TERMINAL IN THE
AFTN/EARLY EVE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     BALLARD-CALDWELL-CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-
     DAVIESS-FULTON-GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-
     LYON-MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION
     KY-WEBSTER.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     BOLLINGER-BUTLER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW
     MADRID-PERRY MO-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION
     IL-WABASH-WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM....DRS
AVIATION...DB

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