Wind Advisory 11, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
927 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007

.UPDATE...
CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST OK/WEST N TEXAS. ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE
OVERNIGHT... MOVING INTO CENTRAL OK BY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONT OVERNIGHT WITH MOST OF THE RAIN
OCCURRING ON THE E/NE SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
SHOW THIS SCENARIO. WITH THE LOSS OF THE SUN... THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANY FURTHER SEVERE/TORNADIC STORMS WILL CONT TO DECREASE AND LIKELY
END OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. WILL CONT WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
EXTEND INTO CENTRAL OK. WILL KEEP CURRENT END TIME OF 14Z.
HOWEVER... WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME ON SUNDAY. WILL
SEND UPDATES AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 156 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007/

SHORT TERM...
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF T.D. ERIN REMAINS WELL DEFINED IN SFC/RADAR/
SATELLITE DATA FIELDS. SYSTEM LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONGER AND MORE
CONCENTRATED AT LOW LEVELS THAN MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODEL
PROGS. DIURNAL CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING E/NE OF CENTER
WHERE PW VALUES REMAIN AOA 2 INCHES. TYPICAL DAY/NIGHT TRENDS
SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION WILL LESSEN IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS
EVENING BEFORE REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IN A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CENTER. LATTER MOST LIKELY TO BE IN THE SW
QUADRANT OF OK BUT EXACT LOCATION HARD TO PIN DOWN. CONSIDERED
EXPANDING FLASH FLOOD WATCH E/NE TOWARD CENTRAL OK... BUT WITH
EXPECTED CONTRACTION OF HEAVIER PRECIP CLOSER TO THE CENTER
OVERNIGHT WE WILL LEAVE THE WATCH AREA INTACT. LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO EXPAND WATCH DEPENDING ON PRECIP TRENDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. POPS ARE INCREASED MAINLY SW OVERNIGHT... BUT LIKELY
POPS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPANDED E/NE INTO CENTRAL OK. POPS
ON SUN ARE INCREASED TO LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE HEART OF THE
CWA... BENEATH THE SLOW-MOVING LOW/MID LEVEL CENTER... ALONG WITH
CONTINUED MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN TROPICAL NATURE OF
BOTH AIRMASS AND THE RESPONSIBLE SYSTEM. WILL FOLLOW THE HPC 6-H
QPF CLOSELY. HIGH TEMPS LOWERED DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIP BUT LOWS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE DUE TO LOW-LEVEL
WINDS/CLOUDS/MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO FORECAST FOR MON AND BEYOND. CHANGING OF THE
GUARD EARLY NEXT WEEK - SO TO SPEAK - AS ERIN REMNANTS PROCEED E
WHILE CURRENT S-FL UPPER LOW MOVES W TOWARD TX. NET RESULT FOR S
PLAINS IS PERSISTING BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE... WHICH LEADS
TO HIGH TEMPS BEING KEPT A LITTLE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. DESPITE THE
BREAK IN THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD... PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED
DUE TO LACK OF A FRONT OR OTHER FOCUSING MECHANISM.

CURRENT TPC/HPC PROJECTIONS OF MAJOR HURRICANE DEAN INDICATE THE
STORM - AND ATTENDANT EFFECTS - WILL REMAIN S OF HERE THROUGH AT
LEAST NEXT SAT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE W-WARD MOVING UPPER
LOW AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE COULD BE THE WILD CARD AND ALTER THE
MID- LEVEL STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF DEAN ENOUGH TO NUDGE IT A TAD
FARTHER N. THIS IS NOT SEEN IN THE CURRENT MODEL DATA THOUGH...
AND THUS IT APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS TIME THAT ANY AFFECT ON THE
OK/NTX AREA WOULD BE LIMITED TO REMNANTS OF THE STORM RECURVING
AND COMING BACK ACROSS EARLY IN THE WEEK OF 26 AUG. REFER TO
LATEST FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS BEING ISSUED BY TPC/NHC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  86  73  91 / 100  60  30  10
HOBART OK         72  85  74  93 /  90  60  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  88  76  93 /  60  60  20  10
GAGE OK           71  89  72  95 /  20  30  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     73  88  75  92 /  50  50  30  10
DURANT OK         74  92  73  92 /  30  40  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ016>030-033>040-
     044.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

25/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1013 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-191200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1013 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS TONIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ERIN MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DUE TO TURNING WINDS AROUND THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS OR WEAK
TORNADOES TO BE POSSIBLE. THE POTENTIAL FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS OR
TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY AUG 19.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...30 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... WHICH COULD
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS HOT SUNDAY WITH THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
ERIN...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WARM AGAIN OVER THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL ONCE
AGAIN REACH THE 100 TO 105 RANGE OVER PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SUNDAY.

30/25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1116 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TORNADO          7 SSE CORDELL           35.21N 98.93W
08/18/2007                   WASHITA            OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            RELAYED BY KFOR TV. MINOR TREE DAMAGE WAS REPORTED AS A
            RESULT OF THE TORNADO. TIME IS ESTIMATED.

&&

TY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1118 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007

OKZ023-027-038-039-044>046-TXZ090-190515-
CADDO OK-GRADY OK-COTTON OK-JEFFERSON OK-COMANCHE OK-CARTER OK-
STEPHENS OK-CLAY TX-
1118 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CADDO...CARTER...CLAY...
COMANCHE...COTTON...GRADY...JEFFERSON AND STEPHENS COUNTIES.

STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 35
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR OR
SO FROM AROUND WAURIKA...DUNCAN AND ARDMORE...NORTHWARD TO AROUND
LAWTON AND CHICKASHA.

PEOPLE IN CADDO...CARTER...CLAY...COMANCHE...COTTON...GRADY...
JEFFERSON AND STEPHENS COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF DUNCAN AND
LAWTON...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1205 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

OKZ016-017-024-190600-
BLAINE OK-CUSTER OK-CANADIAN OK-
1205 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BLAINE...CANADIAN AND CUSTER
COUNTIES.

STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WILL OCCASIONALLY
GUST 50 TO 60 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS SOUTHERN BLAINE... WESTERN
CANADIAN AND EASTERN CUSTER COUNTIES. THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY
BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL THE STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE. ALONG WITH THE WINDS...
RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE... WHICH WILL CAUSE
POOR VISIBILITIES AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

CJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1222 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 AM     TSTM WND GST     7 SW FORT COBB          35.03N 98.53W
08/19/2007  M70 MPH          CADDO              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            A SHED WAS HEAVILY DAMAGED DUE TO THE HIGH WIND. OTHER
            DAMAGE WAS REPORTED AT RESIDENCE OF TRAINED OBSERVER.

1219 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W MOUNTAIN VIEW       35.10N 98.79W
08/19/2007                   KIOWA              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER IS REPORTED WATER FOUR FEET DEEP
            OVER HWY 9. NUMEROUS OTHER ROADS IN GOTEBO, HOBART, AND
            MOUNTAIN VIEW ARE CLOSED DUE TO THE HIGH WATER.

&&

TY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1228 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1226 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 S CARNEGIE            35.05N 98.60W
08/19/2007                   CADDO              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            A CAR WAS WASHED OFF OF HWY 58 FOUR MILES SOUTH OF
            CARNEGIE. ANOTHER CAR WAS WASHED OFF THE ROADWAY SIX
            MILES SOUTH OF CARNEGIE.

&&

TY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1231 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 NNW FORT COBB         35.15N 98.47W
08/19/2007  M60 MPH          CADDO              OK   MESONET

&&

TY