River Flood Warning 5, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
451 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

.DISCUSSION...
A MOST INTERESTING NIGHT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN SEEMED TO HAVE REGAINED
STRENGTH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND HAS PRODUCED STRONG
WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. EVOLUTION OF AN EYE-STRUCTURE HAS BEEN
RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH VERY HEAVY RAINS AND HIGH WINDS OCCURRING
NEAR IT. WE WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BUT WILL EXTEND IT A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND NORTH
WHILE REMOVING SOME OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES. ERIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE
HEAVY RAINS DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME LOCATIONS. AFTER TONIGHT...
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD FALL OFF SIGNIFICANTLY WITH GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WILL MAKE FEW CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED PERIODS ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  86  73  91  73 / 100  30  10  10
HOBART OK         86  74  93  73 /  50  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  76  93  73 /  60  20  10  10
GAGE OK           89  72  95  71 /  30  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     87  75  92  75 /  70  40  10  10
DURANT OK         92  73  92  73 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR OKZ012-013-017>020-
     023>032-037>042-044>046.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ015>019-022>025-
     027>029-035-037>040-044-045.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TXZ086-089-090.

&&

26/32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
104 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-191200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
104 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN
MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. DUE TO STRONG
WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WIND
GUSTS ABOVE 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THE STRONG WIND SHEAR MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD OR TORNADO. HOWEVER... THE
POTENTIAL FOR THESE HAS DECREASED FROM SATURDAY EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH THE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY AUG 19.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...40 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
VERY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS... WHICH WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION SEE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT.

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ERIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 55 MPH ARE LIKELY... WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS ABOVE 60 MPH
POSSIBLE. BE PREPARED FOR SUDDEN INCREASES IN WIND SPEED AS ERIN
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
SEE THE WIND ADVISORY PRODUCT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS HOT SUNDAY WITH THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
ERIN...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WARM AGAIN OVER THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL ONCE
AGAIN REACH THE 100 TO 105 RANGE OVER PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SUNDAY.

30/25

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