Severe Thunderstorm Warning 406, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1040 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2007

.UPDATE...
UPPER LOW CONT TO DOMINATE OUR WX ALONG WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES
TODAY. WILL MAKE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO POPS FOR TODAY AND TWEAK
OTHER GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

MAY BE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE AS MUCH INSTABILITY TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS WEAKER CAP EVIDENT ON MORNING SOUNDING AS AS RADAR CONT
TO SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AREAS BEHIND LARGER COMPLEX THAT
MOVED THROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER MODELS ALSO SHOW CENTER
OF UPPER LOW TRANSLATING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN OK THIS
AFTN... WHICH WILL AID IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... SO SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME HAIL PRODUCING TSTMS. THE 0-1KM AND 0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS
WEAK TODAY... BUT AGAIN IF STORM CAN INTERACT WITH LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY COULD AGAIN SEE WEAK ISOLATED TORNADO... MAINLY DURING LATE
AFTN INTO FIRST PART OF EVENING AS LLJ DEVELOPS.

UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

30

-------------------------------------------------
255 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2007

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS STORMS ENTER A
REGION OF LESS FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR BUT STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ARE TRAINING DUE TO A NEAR BALANCE OF OUTFLOW AND INFLOW
WHICH IS ALLOWING THE FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY.
THE HOBART MESONET REPORTED 3.45 INCHES OF RAIN IN ONE HOUR EARLIER
WITH THE KFDR RADAR IN GOOD AGREEMENT. KFDR 3-HOURLY RAINFALL
ESTIMATES FOR A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF KIOWA COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF
OTHER COUNTIES TO ITS NORTH SHOW 6 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN IN ONLY 3
HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING.

REGARDING TODAYS WEATHER...EXPECT EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TO
DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING WITH RAINFALL RATES DIMINISHING...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG ASSOCIATED
OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES AND NEAR THE UPPER LOWS
SURFACE REFLECTION OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA. GIVEN THE EXTENT OF
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...A REPEAT OF THE RAINFALL EXPERIENCED THE LAST
12 HRS SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH LOWER INSTABILITY AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES. HOWEVER...SO MUCH RAIN HAS FALLEN RECENTLY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE WEST WHERE VARIOUS FLASH FLOOD/FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL
IN EFFECT...WE WILL BE EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TODAY
FOR AREAS JUST INSIDE THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA BORDER AND MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35.

BY TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW BEGINS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA WITH WIDESPREAD BUT POTENTIALLY GRADUALLY LOWER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AS THE INSTABILITY AXIS PIVOTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE SURFACE
LOW. WILL NOT BE EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BEYOND TODAY.
RATHER...PREFER TO LET THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT DICTATE THAT
DECISION LATER TODAY OR EVEN EARLY TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  85  68  84  67 /  90  70  50  40
HOBART OK         88  67  86  66 /  60  50  40  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  91  69  88  69 /  40  50  40  40
GAGE OK           80  62  83  64 /  60  50  40  30
PONCA CITY OK     86  66  83  66 / 100  70  50  30
DURANT OK         87  70  87  70 /  60  60  50  50

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ005>007-010>012-
     015>018-022>024-027-035-038-039.

TX...NONE.

JAMES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-151200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1155 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HOLLIS... TO
WEATHERFORD... KINGFISHER... TO CUSHING. THIS INCLUDES ALL OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SOME CITIES INCLUDED IN THIS AREA ARE ALTUS...
HOBART... OKLAHOMA CITY... CHICKASHA... LAWTON... ARDMORE... AND
WICHITA FALLS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM 2 PM TO
MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS. ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLOODING IN LOW LYING
AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA... SHOULD MONITOR CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY EVENING. MEANWHILE...
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAVE GENERATED
MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS
ALSO LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA... ALTHOUGH SOME RECOVERY OF THE INSTABILITIES WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA. ALTHOUGH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS... A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...  PRIMARILY NEAR ANY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES THAT ARE STILL
EVIDENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY JUN 15.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...40 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... AND SUBSEQUENT FLASH FLOODING... WILL ALSO
BE A THREAT THROUGH TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE
ALREADY EXPERIENCED EXCESSIVE RAINS OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO. PLEASE
REFER TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. MEANWHILE... THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN
A RELATIVELY HIGH PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
AS A RESULT OF NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY... THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME AREAS TO RECEIVE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
FRIDAY.

30

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             9 NE CATESBY            36.59N 99.85W
06/13/2007  E0.75 INCH       ELLIS              OK   PUBLIC

0625 PM     HAIL             9 NNW GAGE              36.44N 99.82W
06/13/2007  E0.88 INCH       ELLIS              OK   PUBLIC

0715 PM     HAIL             4 ENE BESSIE            35.41N 98.92W
06/13/2007  E1.00 INCH       WASHITA            OK   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            WHEAT FIELDS TOTALED BY HAIL JUST EAST AND NORTHEAST OF
            BESSIE.

&&

11

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