Severe Thunderstorm Warning 396, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
906 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2007

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES REGION IS NEARLY
STATIONARY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS LOW HAS HELPED SPAWN NUMEROUS STORMS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN
ADDITION... A COLD FRONT MOVED INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON... STALLED... BACKED UP INTO TEXAS... AND IS NOW
PROGRESSING EAST ONCE AGAIN... WITH FRESH NEW CONVECTION ALONG IT.

THE PLAN FOR TONIGHT IS FOR CONVECTION IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO
SLOWLY ADVANCE EAST... DRIVEN BY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A
MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT... WHICH WILL PROBABLY STALL ONCE AGAIN AFTER IT MOVES
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA... SOUTH-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... WILL HAVE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AS IT APPEARS THAT UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
THERMODYNAMICS ARE NOT AS SUPPORTIVE... THAT PLUS THE OBSERVATION
THAT STORMS WERE UNABLE TO FORM EARLIER THIS EVENING DESPITE A
LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA.

HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS... AND
ADJUSTED POPS SOMEWHAT TO REFLECT THE CURRENT EXPECTATIONS. THIS
WILL NOT AFFECT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 208 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2007/

DISCUSSION...
UPR LOW IN SE CO/NE NM THIS AFTERNOON... WILL SLOWLY MOVE E AND SE
INTO/OVR THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST TO NEAR THE WEST OK/TX PANHANDLE BORDER LATE THIS AFTN. ANOTHER
BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NEAR FREEDOM... TO NEAR KINGFISHER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME SUBSIDENCE HAS OCCURRED OVER PARTS OF THE AREA DUE
TO SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE LOW AS SEEN IN WV IMAGERY. HOWEVER...
THIS SEEMS TO BE ABATING WITH TSTMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE FA EARLY THIS
AFTN. ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES
LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING... WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. SHWRS/TSTMS
WILL CONT OVERNIGHT WITH THE UPR LOW IN THE REGION. IN ADDITION TO
THE SEVERE STORMS... HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY LEAD
TO FLOODING IN SOME AREAS. WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD FOR AREAS MAINLY
I-40 NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT.

UPR LOW WILL CONT TO MEANDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE UPR LOW PROVIDING LIFT AND WEAKLY CAPPED MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE... SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE FA THRU THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONT TO BE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER... THE EXACT LOCATION/AREA OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN/TSTMS WILL
BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARIES LEFT FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY AND
NIGHTS CONVECTION.

MODELS SHOWING AN UPR TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS PACIFIC NW AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY. UPR LOW THAT REMAINS OVER THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN UP INTO A SHORTWAVE LATE
THIS WEEKEND MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE MAIN UPR TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK... WITH A FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE FA. UPR RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES BEHIND
THE TROUGH WITH NW FLOW OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  83  68  84 /  60  60  60  50
HOBART OK         68  83  67  86 /  70  40  40  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  89  69  88 /  40  30  40  40
GAGE OK           64  81  62  83 /  70  50  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     66  83  66  83 /  90  60  60  50
DURANT OK         70  88  70  87 /  20  60  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ004>020-024>026.

TX...NONE.
&&

23/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
300 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-141200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
300 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
OVER ALL OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... AND WESTERN  NORTH
TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS WEST OF A LINE FROM PONCA CITY... TO
STILLWATER... TO SULPHUR... TO MARIETTA...AND INCLUDES ALL OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH AND GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS. A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE
STORM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA... SHOULD MONITOR CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE THREAT
EXPANDING INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TOWARD EVENING. VERY UNSTABLE AIR
COMBINED WITH SOME WIND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO A FEW SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS INTERACT WITH WEAK
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY JUN 14.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT... WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS. PLEASE REFER TO THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS
APPROXIMATELY SOUTHWEST HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY HIGH
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
AS A RESULT OF NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY... THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME AREAS TO RECEIVE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
THURSDAY.

30/MAXWELL

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