Severe Thunderstorm Warning 342, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
201 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2007

.SHORT TERM...
ONCE AGAIN WE HAVE VERY UNSTABLE AND MOSTLY UNCAPPED AIR ACROSS
OUR SE. VERTICAL SHEAR IS A LITTLE STRONGER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.
STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN NUMBER/INTENSITY THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY SE HALF OK WHERE CAPES ARE OVER 3000
ACCORDING TO LATEST SPC/LAPS ANALYSES. UPPER TROUGH SEEN ON
SATELLITE AND 12Z 500MB ANALYSIS OVER W/N OK MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
DEEPER-LAYER FORCING ACROSS E OK THRU EARLY EVENING. SLIGHTLY
BETTER SHEAR SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE OF A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS
TODAY... ALTHOUGH PULSE STORMS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN. STORMS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
UPPER TROUGH MOVING E OF THE AREA. THEREAFTER... NAM IS AN
OUTLIER IN SLOWING DOWN THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM NOW OFF THE
BAJA COAST. WILL SIDE WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT AND FASTER
SOLUTIONS OF THE OTHER MODELS... AND RAISE POPS A LITTLE IN THE NW
ON TUE AND TUE NIGHT WHERE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED.
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OF MOS NUMBERS... WHICH ARE
REASONABLY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER.

.LONG TERM...
GFS CONTINUES TREND OF CUTTING OFF A LOW OVER OR NEAR OK BY AROUND
THU AND KEEPING IT IN THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. GFS
RECENTLY HAS HAD MORE SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF/UKMET THAN FROM ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... MANY OF WHICH REMAIN MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE
THE WEAKNESS IN THE PROGGED HEIGHT FIELD FARTHER E/SE INTO E TX AND
LOWER-MID MS VALLEY. A STALLED UPPER LOW OVER THE S PLAINS WOULD
SEEM UNLIKELY GIVEN SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE SW STATES AND
LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE E/SE STATES. BUT GIVEN THE MODEL
TRENDS AND THE PROSPECTS FOR AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OF THE
SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM... WE WILL TREND WETTER IN THE LATTER PERIODS
OF THE FORECAST. POPS ARE RAISED TO 30-40 PCT RANGE WED-THU...
AND EXTENDED INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK... DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE SYSTEM MEANDERS OVER THE AREA.
TEMPS BASED LARGELY ON MEX MOS GRIDS WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  91  70  88 /  20  20  10  20
HOBART OK         69  92  69  90 /  20  20  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  92  71  91 /  20  20  10  20
GAGE OK           66  92  68  86 /  20  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     70  90  70  87 /  20  30  20  20
DURANT OK         72  92  71  89 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

23/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-111200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1145 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
EAST AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD... TO WATONGA... TO HOBART AND
FREDERICK... TO MARIETTA.

TIMING...
1 PM TO 11 PM.

IMPACTS...
WINDS TO 70 MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL ARE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG VARIOUS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRODUCED BY STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING. THE PRIMARY BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO
I-44... AND WILL BE STRONGEST OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LIFT PROVIDED BY
THE BOUNDARIES... IN ADDITION TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE COMING
IN FROM THE WEST...SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WEAK... VERY HIGH INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW A FEW OF THE STORMS TO BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE... WITH 70 MPH
WINDS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL THE MAIN IMPACTS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY JUN 11.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTIONS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING IF STORMS PERSIST FOR VERY LONG OVER THE SAME
AREA. ALSO...UNUSUALLY FREQUENT LIGHTNING MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW OF
THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES RESIDING OVER THE
AREA...A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY... AND CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAIN.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
MONDAY.

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