Severe Thunderstorm Warning 296, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
245 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

.SHORT TERM...
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS CONT ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA TODAY. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WERE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
OK AND WEST N TX THIS AFTN. STORMS IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY MOVE
INTO SW PORTIONS OF FA THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING... WITH OTHER STORMS
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. A COLD FRONT ALSO
EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE EASTERN OK AND NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLES. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ACROSS THE FA. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPR LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH THE FRONT INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. ONE OR MORE TSTM COMPLEXES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE LATE THIS AFTN THRU SATURDAY
MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS. HOWEVER... WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WHERE
TSTM COMPLEXES WILL MOVE WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR THE FRONT AND/OR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SATURDAY AFTN. HOWEVER... THE EXTENT OF ACTIVITY
MAY BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF NM/CO IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTN/EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY THEN MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE FA
SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY... WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER SOUTHWEST OK/WEST N
TX. THE UPR LOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER MCS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT AND
MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FA SUN NIGHT/MONDAY.
HOWEVER... THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OR MOVEMENT INTO THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS THE DAY AND
NIGHT BEFORE.

.LONG TERM...
THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY... WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO DRY
FORECAST. WITH TROUGH OVR EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK... NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WHICH CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT TSTM COMPLEXES DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER... WITH LIGHT SFC FLOW AND LACK OF QUICK
RETURN OF THE MOISTURE WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY WITH BETTER MOISTURE SPREADING
BACK NORTH. MODELS DIVERGE MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH UPR TROUGH
MOVING INTO WESTERN U.S. MODELS DIFFER IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THIS TROUGH. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL CONT WITH LOW POPS THU-FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  82  63  84 /  70  50  20  30
HOBART OK         64  83  63  86 /  70  50  30  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  82  65  87 /  70  60  30  30
GAGE OK           60  82  57  85 /  60  40  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     63  84  59  84 /  50  40  20  20
DURANT OK         68  82  65  85 /  50  50  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

06/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-021200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1159 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
GAGE TO CHICKASHA TO ADA TO ATOKA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS FROM 5 PM
THROUGH 3 AM.

IMPACTS...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH. SOME DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES AND TENDER
VEGETATION FROM LARGE HAIL. PROPERTY DAMAGE AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
FROM FLOODING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM 5 PM UNTIL
3 AM.

DISCUSSION...
CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN A DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.  THIS
WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.  AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WESTWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY FOCUS ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

LATER IN THE EVENING...ATTENTION WILL TURN BACK TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND ALONG A COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS EXPECTED TO SET UP THROUGH WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WEST OF A LINE FROM GAGE TO
LAWTON AND WICHITA FALLS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY JUN 2.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...STREAMS AND CREEKS.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
WITH NO DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS TO REMOVE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
FROM THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER...THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SPECIFIC THREAT AREAS WILL CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY...DEPENDING
LARGELY ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE PREVIOUS DAYS
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE ORIENTATION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
WITH THE WET WEATHER PATTERN...FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT
7 AM SATURDAY JUNE 2ND.

SIX/7

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
358 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             N CYRIL                 34.90N 98.20W
06/01/2007  E0.75 INCH       CADDO              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

TY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
420 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

OKZ019-020-012200-
LOGAN OK-PAYNE OK-
420 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR LOGAN AND PAYNE COUNTIES.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM STILLWATER TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF LOVELL AT 420 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN LOGAN AND PAYNE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
STILLWATER...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

24

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
425 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

OKZ024-027-012200-
CANADIAN OK-GRADY OK-
425 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CANADIAN AND GRADY COUNTIES.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED FROM 3 MILES SOUTH OF EL RENO TO
NINNEKAH AT 425 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN CANADIAN AND GRADY COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
CHICKASHA...EL RENO AND OKLAHOMA CITY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

24

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
454 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             4 E APACHE              34.89N 98.29W
06/01/2007  E1.00 INCH       CADDO              OK   OTHER FEDERAL

            REPORTED BY NSSL SHAVE PROJECT.

0452 PM     HAIL             6 SW ANADARKO           35.00N 98.32W
06/01/2007  E0.75 INCH       CADDO              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

TY

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