Severe Thunderstorm Warning 265, NWS Norman, OK

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
850 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-011200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
850 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA... AND A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS AND MOST OF THE REST OF WESTERN... CENTRAL... AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CHEROKEE TO
CLINTON TO ERICK. THE SLIGHT RISK IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
COALGATE TO MADILL.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NOW THROUGH 7
AM.

IMPACTS...
DAMAGING WINDS... POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH... WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN OVERNIGHT. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND A FEW TORNADOES
ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD BE READY TO CONDUCT SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS WELL
INTO THE NIGHT... AND POSSIBLY THROUGH SUNRISE.

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS... FROM CENTRAL KANSAS SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...
WILL MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY FAR WESTERN PARTS
OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE EVENING. AN AXIS OF
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THESE AREAS... AND THIS INFLOW OF UNSTABLE AIR
WILL INCREASE AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING.
THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS ALSO WILL LEAD TO STRONGER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS... INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS... MAY INCREASE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EVENTUALLY WILL ORGANIZE INTO ONE
OR MORE LARGE COMPLEXES LATER TONIGHT. AS OF MID EVENING... THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT OF AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX APPEARED TO BE
IN... OR AROUND... THE AREA FROM SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES.
FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR AND A SUSTAINED STRONG INFLOW OF MOIST AIR AT
LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT ARE STRONG INDICATIONS THAT ONCE THE STORMS
FORM INTO A COMPLEX... THEY WILL ACCELERATE TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST.
THIS SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING... BUT THE SETUP TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE EVEN MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE CORRIDOR
MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
WIND DAMAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA THROUGH 1 AM... EVENTUALLY STRETCHING EAST AND
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL.... CENTRAL... AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 1 AM.

ALTHOUGH WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT... THERE WILL
BE A CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WITH SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY JUN 1.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...90 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
AREAS THAT RECEIVED SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE
PRONE TO FLOODING WITH ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS AMPLE MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND SEVERE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY
DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND MOVE INTO PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL POSE A FLOOD RISK TO ANY AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS THIS WEEK.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
FRIDAY.

24

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1019 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

OKZ004-009-010345-
HARPER OK-ELLIS OK-
1019 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ELLIS AND HARPER COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 22 MILES NORTH OF
BUFFALO TO 21 MILES NORTHWEST OF CATESBY AT 1019 PM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN ELLIS AND HARPER COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.