Severe Thunderstorm Warning 259, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
345 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2007

WELL DEVELOPED MCS IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH DEVELOPMENT
AND MOVEMENT THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
BEST CHANCES MAY REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 CORRIDOR. THIS
WOULD BRING STRONG STORMS INTO THE METRO AREA NEAR SUNRISE WITH
THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXACT EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACT
CONCERNING BOUNDARIES FOR REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED MORE WITH THE NAM WHICH WILL FOCUS
STORMS FROM SOUTHWEST/WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

BY THURSDAY UPPER LOW WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THEREFORE THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND FOCUS MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THIS
REGION. CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS MAY PUSH BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN PARTS OKLAHOMA LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY SO HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF FA.

SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE ACROSS
AT LEAST WESTERN PARTS OF FA SATURDAY AND MAYBE SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  77  63  80  66 /  70  50  30  30
HOBART OK         80  61  81  65 /  50  50  30  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  84  66  84  68 /  50  50  30  20
GAGE OK           74  54  80  61 /  30  20  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     75  61  78  64 /  70  50  40  40
DURANT OK         83  68  81  69 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

SIX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
610 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-301700-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
610 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THROUGH EARLY MORNING...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LAWTON TO PAULS VALLEY AND SEMINOLE
OKLAHOMA.

THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM WOODWARD TO ELK CITY AND HOLLIS.

TIMING...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FROM 6 AM THROUGH 9 AM.  SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP BY 6 PM AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH MID MORNING.  ALTHOUGH MID
AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COMPLEX.  DAMAGING WINDS TO 65
MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. OTHER SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX OVER SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO HALF DOLLARS.

THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER BY
MID MORNING.  BY LATE AFTERNOON...HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO
HIGH INSTABILITY FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE MORNING COMPLEX AND A COLD
FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND WINDS TO 70 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY MAY 31.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...90 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
OVER THE WEEKEND HAS LEFT THE AREA MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH
FLOODING.  A FEW AREAS MAY RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AS WELL AS STREAMS AND CREEKS.  BE ESPECIALLY CAREFUL OF
LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL
LIKELY LIFT NORTH INTO PARTS OF KANSAS DURING THE DAY.  THE FRONT
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ANOTHER
LARGE COMPLEX MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA EARLY FRIDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE
UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...WITH
NIGHT-TIME AND MORNING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THE PRIMARY MODE.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
AS THE NORTHWEST-FLOW PATTERN EVOLVES...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
514 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2007

OKZ039-301100-
STEPHENS OK-
514 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR STEPHENS COUNTY.

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 22 MILES NORTH OF
MARLOW TO 40 MILES WEST OF CENTRAL HIGH AT 514 AM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR.

PEOPLE IN STEPHENS COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF DUNCAN...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN
ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

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