Severe Thunderstorm Warning 247, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
345 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2007

WELL DEVELOPED MCS IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH DEVELOPMENT
AND MOVEMENT THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
BEST CHANCES MAY REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 CORRIDOR. THIS
WOULD BRING STRONG STORMS INTO THE METRO AREA NEAR SUNRISE WITH
THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXACT EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACT
CONCERNING BOUNDARIES FOR REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED MORE WITH THE NAM WHICH WILL FOCUS
STORMS FROM SOUTHWEST/WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

BY THURSDAY UPPER LOW WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THEREFORE THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND FOCUS MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THIS
REGION. CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS MAY PUSH BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN PARTS OKLAHOMA LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY SO HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF FA.

SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE ACROSS
AT LEAST WESTERN PARTS OF FA SATURDAY AND MAYBE SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  77  63  80  66 /  70  50  30  30
HOBART OK         80  61  81  65 /  50  50  30  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  84  66  84  68 /  50  50  30  20
GAGE OK           74  54  80  61 /  30  20  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     75  61  78  64 /  70  50  40  40
DURANT OK         83  68  81  69 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

SIX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-301200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ERICK TO ALVA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH
AND FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING RAINFALL.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS LATE TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
WITH A VERY MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS OVER MOST OF THE REGION
TODAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...PRIMARILY NEAR AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE-35. ALTHOUGH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR MUCH OF THE EVENING
HOURS.

DURING THE MID-EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS...ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THE BODY
OF OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TO MAINTAIN STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. ANY STORMS THAT APPROACH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MAY 30.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...30 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
WITH THE GROUND SATURATED IN MOST AREAS...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS
OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
MAIN AREAS THAT COULD SEE SEVERE STORMS ARE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR NEAR THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A
SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO HELP TO INCREASE WIND
SHEAR AND LIFT. BY THE WEEKEND...A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE UPPER-AIR
PATTERN WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...WITH NIGHT-TIME
AND MORNING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THE PRIMARY MODE.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE
SUBSEQUENT STATIONARY FRONT. AS THE NORTHWEST-FLOW PATTERN
EVOLVES...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

11

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