Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
514 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

.UPDATE...
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO ROLL ACROSS WESTERN OK AND
WESTERN N TX THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WX THREAT
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN GIVEN RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED AND NNEWD
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS. MANY IN WESTERN OK...ESPECIALLY NW
OK..HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH FFG
VALUES FAIRLY LOW. THUS WILL GO WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR
ROUGHLY THE WESTERN THIRD OF OK SWD INTO WRN N TX WITH BOTH FLASH
FLOODING AND MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING A CONCERN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  79  64  78 /  70  70  60  50
HOBART OK         66  80  60  77 /  60  60  60  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  82  66  81 /  60  60  60  50
GAGE OK           58  72  54  75 /  60  50  60  50
PONCA CITY OK     67  76  66  78 /  70  70  60  50
DURANT OK         68  82  67  83 /  40  50  40  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>006-009>011-
     014>016-021-022-033>037.

TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>085-087-088.

&&

02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1015 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-071200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1015 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST...CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...AND
INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN ON SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

IMPACTS...
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE STORMS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 IN SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE MAIN
THREATS FROM STORMS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA FROM SOUTHWEST WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
GOLFBALLS...WINDS TO 70 MPH...AS WELL AS FLOODING FROM TORRENTIAL
RAIN.

DISCUSSION...
VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ENHANCE THE
THREAT OF TORNADOES WITH THE STORMS MOVING THROUGH EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKALHOMA. THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE A BIT LOWER
FARTHER WEST HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN AS
THE STORMS MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST MOVING REPEATEDLY OVER
THE SAME AREAS. A FEW STORMS MAY STILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY MAY 6.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING IN AREAS THAT ARE
AFFECTED BY REPEAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FROM
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST
MOVES SLOWLY EAST. DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE LOCATION OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL AFFECT THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY.

ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK... THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
MONDAY.

II

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
102 AM CDT MON MAY 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     HAIL             GRACEMONT               35.19N 98.26W
05/07/2007  E0.88 INCH       CADDO              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME AND NICKEL HAIL.

&&

DW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
137 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

OKZ023-027-070700-
CADDO OK-GRADY OK-
137 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CADDO AND GRADY COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAKE CHICKASHA
AT 137 AM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN CADDO AND GRADY COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

..SPEG.