Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
514 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

.UPDATE...
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO ROLL ACROSS WESTERN OK AND
WESTERN N TX THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WX THREAT
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN GIVEN RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED AND NNEWD
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS. MANY IN WESTERN OK...ESPECIALLY NW
OK..HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH FFG
VALUES FAIRLY LOW. THUS WILL GO WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR
ROUGHLY THE WESTERN THIRD OF OK SWD INTO WRN N TX WITH BOTH FLASH
FLOODING AND MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING A CONCERN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  79  64  78 /  70  70  60  50
HOBART OK         66  80  60  77 /  60  60  60  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  82  66  81 /  60  60  60  50
GAGE OK           58  72  54  75 /  60  50  60  50
PONCA CITY OK     67  76  66  78 /  70  70  60  50
DURANT OK         68  82  67  83 /  40  50  40  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>006-009>011-
     014>016-021-022-033>037.

TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>085-087-088.

&&

02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
635 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-071200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
635 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...AND
INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND MAY
PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN ON SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

IMPACTS...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS...WINDS TO 70 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL
RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS. FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

DISCUSSION...
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER EMPHASIS IS SHIFTING TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS
THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS OF FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EVENING...AND A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AS LARGE
AS GOLFBALLS AND WINDS UP TO 70 MPH.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY MAY 6.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING IN AREAS THAT ARE
AFFECTED BY REPEAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FROM
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST
MOVES SLOWLY EAST. DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE LOCATION OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL AFFECT THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY.

ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK... THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
MONDAY.

BURKE/SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
721 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

OKZ011-015-070100-
DEWEY OK-MAJOR OK-
721 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR DEWEY AND MAJOR COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TALOGA AT
721 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT
SEILING AND ORION.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY.

BURKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
741 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 W CUSTER CITY         35.66N 98.98W
05/06/2007  E60 MPH          CUSTER             OK   PUBLIC

&&

FM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
751 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

OKZ015-016-070115-
DEWEY OK-CUSTER OK-
751 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CUSTER AND DEWEY COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PUTNAM TO CLINTON AT 751 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSILBE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CUSTER COUNTY...MOVING INTO DEWEY COUNTY AROUND PUTNAM.

BURKE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
814 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

OKZ021-070145-
BECKHAM OK-
814 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BECKHAM COUNTY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAYRE AND 11
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ERICK AT 814 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN BECKHAM COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF ELK CITY...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN
ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

..SPEG.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
817 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

OKZ015-016-070145-
DEWEY OK-CUSTER OK-
817 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CUSTER AND DEWEY COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM TALOGA TO 5 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ARAPAHO AT 817 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND EASTERN DEWEY AND CUSTER COUNTIES.

BURKE