Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
248 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

.SHORT TERM...
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE OUTBREAK IN PROGRESS WITH HIGHER-END
POTENTIAL FROM NW OK NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING
SW FLOW ALOFT CURRENTLY PROVIDING STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN REGION
OF VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /CAPES 3000-5000 J/KG/ AHEAD OF DRYLINE.
UPPER FLOW EXPECTED TO BACK SOME IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING TROF
DROPPING INTO AZ/NM TONIGHT... WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF STORMS OFF THE DRYLINE OVERNIGHT. HIGHER POPS
THUS ARE CONFINED TO W PARTS OF THE CWA... AND ESPECIALLY NW OK.
BACKED UPPER FLOW ALSO WILL LEAD TO ANVIL SEEDING OF DOWNWIND
STORMS BASED ON CURRENT ORIENTATION OF CORES ALONG THE DRYLINE.
STORMS LIKELY TO INITIATE FARTHER S DOWN THE DRYLINE INTO OR
THROUGH W TX... EVENTUALLY AFFECTING SW OK AND OUR N TX ZONES.
WEAKER FORCING ALOFT AND LESS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY KEEP THE MORE
SOUTHERN STORMS RELATIVELY ISOLATED. THIS ALONG WITH MORE VEERED
UPPER FLOW RAISES CONCERNS THAT STORMS FARTHER S WILL HAVE EQUAL
OR GREATER TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL THAN THE ONES FROM N OK
NORTHWARD.

LIMITED COVERAGE OF STORMS FARTHER S AND E TONIGHT MAY LEAD TO
ANOTHER SETUP FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE ON SUNDAY FARTHER S AND E
TOWARD MIDDLE THIRD OF OK AND SW INTO N TX. MLCAPES NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXTREME AS THOSE OBSERVED TODAY - WITH 1000-2000 J/KG MORE
LIKELY. DRYLINE WILL SLOSH BACK W TONIGHT AND WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ON SUNDAY... ALONG WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT IN THE MOIST SECTOR E OF THE DRYLINE.
DESPITE BACKED UPPER FLOW EXPECTED... LOW LEVELS ALSO ARE
FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENTLY BACKED TO PROVIDE AMPLE SHEAR FOR
POTENTIAL SUPERCELLS. HARD TO PINPOINT RELATIVE GREATER RISK AREAS
ON SUNDAY AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING EVOLUTION
OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. 24

.LONG TERM...
S END OF WESTERN TROF LIKELY TO BE SLOW IN COMING OUT AS
CUTOFF DEVELOPS OFF SE COAST AND UPSTREAM PATTERN BECOMES BLOCKED.
TIMING DIFFERENCES PERSIST AMONG MODELS BUT MORE BLOCKY PATTERN
ARGUES FOR SLOWING DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM.
POPS THUS ARE EXTENDED INTO THU. ALTHOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE
RELATIVELY LIMITED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE... LONG-TERM POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE ON MULTIPLE TEMPORAL/SPATIAL SCALES
DURING THE WEEK DUE TO ANTECEDENT WET GROUND AND PROLONGED
POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION. OVERALL MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL TRENDS
ARE TO BRING RIDGING INTO THE S PLAINS BY FRI-SAT... THUS WARMER
WITH LOWER POPS. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE GRIDS ARE BASED HEAVILY ON
MEX MOS GUIDANCE. 24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  85  69  80  65 /  20  30  50  60
HOBART OK         85  67  83  63 /  30  40  60  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  71  84  68 /  20  30  50  60
GAGE OK           84  62  80  58 /  40  60  60  50
PONCA CITY OK     83  70  82  67 /  20  40  50  70
DURANT OK         84  70  85  68 /  10  20  40  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

25/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-061200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1200 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA... AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CHEROKEE TO CHEYENNE
OKLAHOMA. THE SLIGHT RISK SURROUNDS THE MODERATE RISK AND IS
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CUSHING... TO DUNCAN... TO NORMAN... TO
ARCHER CITY.

TIMING...
ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME FROM NOW THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING... THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 3 PM THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

IMPACTS...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS... WINDS TO 70 MPH... AND TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...
THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON TO NEAR THE
WESTERN OKLAHOMA BORDER. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN
UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... WITH THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE MOST LIKELY AFFECTING THE AREA TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE
EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE VERY UNSTABLE. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE DRYLINE AND SURFACE HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME
A CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE AND MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND
SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE FORM OF
SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL... STRONG WINDS... AND TORNADOES.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AS THE SECOND UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH THE DRYLINE
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE AREA. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...
THE STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE COMPLEXES WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE LARGER CONCERN. THE CAP WILL BE
STRONGER FARTHER EAST WHICH MAY CAUSE STORMS TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER... A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY HELP MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY MAY 6.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...90 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...90 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME DIFFICULTIES FOR BOATERS ON
THE LARGER LAKES... AND MAY MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT ON EAST-WEST
HIGHWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH THE DRYLINE AND ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY.
THESE STORMS MAY ALSO BECOME SEVERE SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER... THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DECREASE WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN INCREASING WHICH MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SUNDAY.

MAXWELL/BRANICK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
127 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

OKZ009-051845-
ELLIS OK-
127 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ELLIS COUNTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CATESBY OR
NEAR FOLLET TEXAS AT 127 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THIS
STORM WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF ELLIS COUNTY. WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN ELLIS COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

MAXWELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
155 PM CDT SAT MAY 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     HAIL             LAVERNE                 36.71N 99.90W
05/05/2007  E1.75 INCH       HARPER             OK   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JPIKE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
500 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

OKZ004-052215-
HARPER OK-
500 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR HARPER COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES WEST OF BUFFALO AT 500 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN HARPER COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

..SPEG.