Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1103 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL OK. HOWEVER... THIS
ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FA. CLDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING... BUT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER... EXPECT
WINDS TO STAY JUST BELOW ADVSY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. DRYLINE WILL
CONT TO MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE WEST OK TX BORDER. STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE DRYLINE LATER TODAY WITH CONVERGENCE POSSIBLY
BEING SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CAP. THESE STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME
SEVERE. ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS. ALSO TWEAKED HOURLY
GRIDS AND SKY COVER TO CURRENT TRENDS. WILL SEND UPDATES SHORTLY.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007/

..CORRECTED TEMP/POP TABLE...

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD STRATUS HAS AGAIN FORMED OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING... HOWEVER GUSTY SOUTH WINDS HAS PREVENTED ANY SIGNIFICANT
FOG FORMATION. AS HEATING GETS UNDERWAY TODAY... WE LOOK FOR THE
LOW CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO THIN FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE... A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEVERE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL ONCE MORE BECOME
VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE... THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING AS HIGHER
WINDS ALOFT SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE... A DRYLINE
LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING... WILL MOVE EAST LATER
TODAY... POSSIBLY REACHING THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE-WESTERN
OKLAHOMA BORDER. HEATING IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO
ALLOW AT LEAST A FEW STORMS TO GET THROUGH THE CAP. THE GREATEST
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF OKLAHOMA WHERE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
STRONGER... AND THE CAP MOST LIKLEY TO BE BROKEN. THIS AREA COULD
ALSO BE AFFECTED MORE BY ANY UPPER WAVES COMING OUT ACROSS THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE.

ELSEWHERE... THE CAP WILL BE A NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR DEEP
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING. LAST NIGHTS RUN OF THE NAM WAS
TYPICALLY PREMATURE IN ELIMINATING THE CAP IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR
THIS MORNING... HOWEVER... THE MOST RECENT RUN DOES HANG ONTO IT
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORT WAVES LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTH... AND LITTLE ADVANCEMENT OF
THE DRYLINE VERY FAR OUT OF THE PANHANDLE... TIMING THE ONSET OF
T-STORMS OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL BE PROBLEMATIC. WE WILL TRIM
BACK POPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE FA FOR TODAY
AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS THE STRONG JET MAXES ROUND THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH... MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY... AND PERHAPS SPREAD PRECIPITATION A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST.

THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS A WEAKER
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST... WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND AFTER SUNDAY AS THE WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN.
HOWEVER... THE HEAVY RAIN CHANCES COULD INCREASE DUE TO THE SLOW
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  85  68  82  63 /  20  30  50  50
HOBART OK         85  66  81  59 /  30  50  50  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  69  84  63 /  20  30  40  50
GAGE OK           84  63  75  52 /  40  60  60  40
PONCA CITY OK     83  69  80  62 /  20  50  50  60
DURANT OK         84  70  84  69 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

25/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-061200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1200 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA... AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CHEROKEE TO CHEYENNE
OKLAHOMA. THE SLIGHT RISK SURROUNDS THE MODERATE RISK AND IS
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CUSHING... TO DUNCAN... TO NORMAN... TO
ARCHER CITY.

TIMING...
ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME FROM NOW THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING... THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 3 PM THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

IMPACTS...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS... WINDS TO 70 MPH... AND TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...
THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON TO NEAR THE
WESTERN OKLAHOMA BORDER. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN
UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... WITH THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE MOST LIKELY AFFECTING THE AREA TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE
EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE VERY UNSTABLE. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE DRYLINE AND SURFACE HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME
A CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE AND MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND
SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE FORM OF
SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL... STRONG WINDS... AND TORNADOES.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AS THE SECOND UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH THE DRYLINE
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE AREA. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...
THE STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE COMPLEXES WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE LARGER CONCERN. THE CAP WILL BE
STRONGER FARTHER EAST WHICH MAY CAUSE STORMS TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER... A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY HELP MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY MAY 6.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...90 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...90 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME DIFFICULTIES FOR BOATERS ON
THE LARGER LAKES... AND MAY MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT ON EAST-WEST
HIGHWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH THE DRYLINE AND ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY.
THESE STORMS MAY ALSO BECOME SEVERE SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER... THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DECREASE WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN INCREASING WHICH MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SUNDAY.

MAXWELL/BRANICK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1258 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

OKZ004-009-051830-
HARPER OK-ELLIS OK-
1258 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ELLIS AND HARPER COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 22 MILES WEST OF SHATTUCK OR NEAR
LIPSCOMB TEXAS AT 1258 PM CDT. A SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
SOUTH OF KNOWLES TEXAS. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 TO
30 MPH. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ELLIS
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF HARPER COUNTY BY 130 PM.

PEOPLE IN ELLIS AND HARPER COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

MAXWELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
121 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

OKZ004-051845-
HARPER OK-
121 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR HARPER COUNTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROSSTON OR
NEAR GATE TEXAS AT 121 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS
STORM MAY MOVE INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST HARPER COUNTY. HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF NICKELS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HARPER COUNTY.

PEOPLE IN HARPER COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

MAXWELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
127 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

OKZ009-051845-
ELLIS OK-
127 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ELLIS COUNTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CATESBY OR
NEAR FOLLET TEXAS AT 127 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THIS
STORM WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF ELLIS COUNTY. WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN ELLIS COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

MAXWELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
155 PM CDT SAT MAY 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     HAIL             LAVERNE                 36.71N 99.90W
05/05/2007  E1.75 INCH       HARPER             OK   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JPIKE

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