Severe Thunderstorm Warning 120, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
820 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

.UPDATE...
MULTIPLE WARNINGS BEING ISSUED TO OUR W AND NW. TORNADIC CELL IN
CALLOWAY CTY COULD CLIP NW PORTIONS OF STEWART CTY. LIGHTNING DISPLAY
TRENDS HAVE BEEN DOWNWARD...AND CELLS STARTING TO MERGE INTO MORE OF
A MULTI-CELLULAR LOOK. CELL IN GIBSON COUNTY APPEARS TO HAVE SOME GOOD
REAR INFLOW NOTCHES. MAY BE ANOTHER 2 HOURS OR SO BEFORE OUR CWA
GETS THINGS GOING...AND EXPECT MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007/

DISCUSSION...SEVERE WEATHER IS MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. A TORNADO WATCH WAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF OUR
AREA BASED ON RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CELLS ALONG MS/AL BORDER AND
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. WE STILL THINK
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN MID TN WILL BE THIS EVENING
FROM 8 PM CDT - 2 AM CDT WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. PARAMETERS WILL REMAIN SUITABLE FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS ALONG WITH
GRADIENT WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING DOWN A FEW TREES OR LIMBS THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY DROUGHT WEAKENED TREES. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS. WINDS
MAY BE STRONGER LATER..BUT SHOULD BE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OR JUST
ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF. AT 2 PM CDT...THE SURFACE FRONT EXTENDED
FROM A LOW PRESSURE IN MN DOWN INTO MO AND NORTHWEST AR THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND FILL IN
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OVER WEST TN AND WEST KY LATE TODAY. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS MID TN WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
BETWEEN 06Z- 12Z FRIDAY.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL. NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
MODEL FORECAST SOLUTIONS DIVERGE RADICALLY AT THAT POINT. GFS
SWEEPS SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY WHILE OTHER MODELS HOLD BACK
LOW PRESSURE FARTHER WEST. WE WILL GO WITH A BLEND...KEEPING POPS
A LITTLE LONGER THAN GFS AND NOT BRINGING IN COOL AIR QUITE AS
FAST. TREND FROM ALL MODELS IS TO BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
NORMAL OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

17/MAG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
210 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-191030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
210 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE SUCH THAT ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE
NASHVILLE AREA AND TO THE WEST IN A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...
WITH A SLIGHT RISK TO THE EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON MONDAY,
WHICH WILL BRING OUR NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER. IT IS THEREFORE
POSSIBLE THAT HAZARDOUS WEATHER MAY OCCUR AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH THE MID STATE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT
...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1201 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 W CENTERVILLE         35.79N 87.61W
10/18/2007                   HICKMAN            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN AT COBLE.

1150 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAWRENCEBURG            35.25N 87.34W
10/18/2007                   LAWRENCE           TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            14 INCH DIAMETER TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ONTO A HOUSE.

1148 PM     TSTM WND DMG     IRON CITY               35.03N 87.58W
10/18/2007                   LAWRENCE           TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES WERE DOWN ON STATE ROUTE 227 JUST SOUTH OF IRON
            CITY.

&&

ORCHANIAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1250 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNE HOHENWALD         35.62N 87.53W
10/18/2007                   LEWIS              TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            911 REPORTED TREES DOWN AT KIMMINS.

1207 AM     TSTM WND GST     LEBANON                 36.21N 86.32W
10/19/2007  E0 MPH           WILSON             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WEMA REPORTED TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN THE WESTERN
            PART OF LEBANON.

1155 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 E NASHVILLE          36.17N 86.61W
10/18/2007                   DAVIDSON           TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND POWER LINES WERE DOWN IN HERMITAGE AT

            INTERSECTION OF TULIP GROVE ROAD AND OLD LEBANON DIRT RD.

1155 PM     TSTM WND DMG     11 W LEBANON            36.21N 86.52W
10/18/2007                   WILSON             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN AT INTERSECTION OF BENDERS FERRY ROAD AND MAYS
            CHAPEL RD.

1208 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUNT PLEASANT          35.55N 87.19W
10/19/2007                   MAURY              TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN.

1034 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLARKSVILLE             36.56N 87.35W
10/18/2007                   MONTGOMERY         TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            911 DISPATCH REPORTED TREES DOWN STARTING AT WOODLAWN AT
            1034 PM THEN THROUGH CLARKSVILLE AND ENDING AT PORT ROYAL
            BY 11 PM CDT.

&&

ORCHANIAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
118 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     TSTM WND DMG     9 SSE CARTHAGE          36.14N 85.88W
10/19/2007                   SMITH              TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            S.O. REPORTS TREES BLOWN DOWN IN LANCASTER HILL IN
            SOUTHEAST SMITH COUNTY

&&

JLM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
119 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WAYNESBORO              35.32N 87.76W
10/18/2007                   WAYNE              TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED SEVERAL TREES WERE DOWN AROUND
            THE COUNTY, STARTING IN THE WEST AT 1055 PM AND IN THE
            EAST BY 1115 PM CDT.

1246 AM     TSTM WND GST     CELINA                  36.55N 85.50W
10/19/2007  E0 MPH           CLAY               TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES WERE DOWN JUST WEST OF CELINA ON
            HIGHWAY 52 AND ALSO IN BAPTIST RIDGE FROM 1246 AM AM TO
            1252 AM CDT.

&&

ORCHANIAN

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