Severe Thunderstorm Warning 315, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
417 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

.DISCUSSION...

DIFFICULT FORECAST ON TAP TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SPECIFICALLY
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF PCPN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING A
NUMBER OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROF
ACROSS THE NW CONUS...AND INTO THE PLAINS. UPPER DIVG/IMPULSES HAVE
HELP KICK OFF LINE OF COMPLEXES FROM SD/WRN NEB/NE CO INVOF A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ABOUT SRN SD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...VORT MAX/LLVL JET/MOIST CONVG OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA
RESPONSIBLE FOR A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE CWA...WITH
ANOTHER SEPARATE AREA OF STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH NRN KS/SC
NEB. GIVEN TRENDS OF REGIONAL 88D LOOP...FAIRLY CONFIDENT CWA SHOULD
SEE PCPN ACTIVITY THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
CWA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR TILL FROPA LATER DAY...WITH RUC
SHOWING MLCAPES INCREASING THROUGH 12Z-18Z TO 1500 J/KG...SUGGESTING
APPROACHING ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN
ITSELF. SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT AS
UPPER TROF AXIS MIGRATES EAST. BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY STALLS FROM ERN IA
TO SW KS FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ALONG THE
BOUNDARY EARLY ON BEFORE THE LLVL JET BEGINS SWINGING FROM S TO SW.
WILL THEREFORE FOCUS HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY WHERE LIFT WILL BE MORE PREVALENT. NEXT DISTURBANCE OF CONCERN
BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INDUCING
LIFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS
AND LAYS PATCH OF QPF INVOF THE NRN CWA FRIDAY EVENING...SO WILL ADD
TOKEN POPS JUST IN CASE. FINALLY...MILD AND DRY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WCNTRL IA SHOULD
CONT TILL AROUND 12Z WITH OTHER SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO AND ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH A LULL
IN THE ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING...AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION IS LIKELY LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY TNGT AS A FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA.  THE WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS LEFT LOW CLOUDS SCT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH CIGS MOSTLY IN THE 1000-2000 FOOT RANGE BUT OCNLY
DROPPING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY.  APPEARS THERE WL BE ENOUGH CLOUD
COVER/MIXING TO KEEP WDSPRD VSBY RESTRICTIONS FROM OCCURRING THIS
MORNING...OUTSIDE OF PCPN AREAS ANYWAY.  HOWEVER...SOME ISOLD 3SM BR
IS POSSIBLE FOR SVRL HOURS THIS MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING
     IAZ043-055-056.
&&

DEE/CHERMOK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
511 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-221700-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
511 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY A FEW STORMS WILL BECOME TORNADIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THAT THREAT SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT ALBION TO HARLAN IOWA.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS MOVED LITTLE THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...AND POSSIBLY INDUCE A FEW TORNADIC STORMS IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...STORMS WILL
EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO A SQUALL LINE AND PUSH INTO WESTERN IOWA TOWARD
MIDNIGHT. STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WHEN
THIS OCCURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

DEE

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